Predictors of severity of attacks of acute pancreatitis.

In an attempt to reduce the current morbidity and mortality from acute pancreatitis, a prospective randomized multicentre trial was begun in August 1982. Part of this study involved an attempt to develop a set of prognostic indices which would identify patients with severe pancreatitis on the day of admission to hospital. An analysis of a predetermined set of 10 indices (age, blood pressure, white cell count, blood urea, serum calcium, aspartate aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, blood glucose, arterial blood pH and PO2) on admission to hospital, in 100 patients, is presented. The positive predictive value of these indices (excluding age) is 90%. These indices are readily available in most hospitals, and allow the early identification of the high risk patient with an accuracy equal to or better than that previously reported.