Bayesian Refinement of the Permeability-Limited Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model for Perfluorooctanoic Acid in Male Rats.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling is a powerful technique to inform risk assessment of xenobiotic substances such as perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). In our previous study, a permeability-limited PBPK model was developed to simulate the toxicokinetics and tissue distribution of PFOA in male rats. However, due to limited information on some key model parameters (, protein binding and active transport rates), the uncertainty of the permeability-limited PBPK model was quite high. To address this issue, a hierarchical Bayesian analysis with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) was applied to reduce the uncertainty of parameters and improve the performance of the PBPK model. With the optimized posterior parameters, the PBPK model was evaluated by comparing its prediction with experimental data from three different studies. The results show that the uncertainties of the posterior model parameters were reduced substantially. In addition, most of the PBPK model predictions were improved: with the posterior parameters, most of the predicted plasma toxicokinetics (, half-life) and tissue distribution fell well within a factor of 2.0 of the experimental data. Finally, the Bayesian framework could provide insights into the molecular mechanisms driving PFOA toxicokinetics: PFOA-protein binding, membrane permeability, and active transport.