Patolab Oy, Espoo, Finland.
Department of Public Health, Helsinki University, Helsinki, Finland.
Scand J Gastroenterol. 2022 Feb;57(2):154-157. doi: 10.1080/00365521.2021.1998605. Epub 2021 Nov 10.
To predict how the10-year birth cohort specific prevalence rates of chronic non-atrophic (CG) and atrophic gastritis (AG), related to (Hp) infection, will decline during the 21 century among the native adult Finns.
The predictions are based as continuums of our earlier observations of gradual and significant declines in birth cohort specific prevalence rates of CG and AG in endoscopic biopsies from gastric antrum and corpus of 2298 adult dyspeptic outpatients or asymptomatic volunteers born 1890-1977 that were endoscopied in 1972-1997 in Finland.
We could predict that the Hp related CG and AG will gradually disappear in history among the native Finns during the 21 century. From the 2020s onward, the CG and AG would decrease with time in prevalence rate, cohort-by-cohort, and would be more and more highlighted in the middle aged or elderly age groups only. Finally, since all birth cohorts (generations) infected with Hp have passed away by 2080, the Hp related gastrites would not appear anymore in notable counts among the native Finns. Correspondingly, gastric cancers and peptic ulcers (both duodenal and gastric), which are etiopathogenetically linked with Hp gastrites, would similarly become gradually more and more infrequent and rare disorders among native Finns during the 21 century.
预测在 21 世纪，与幽门螺杆菌（Hp）感染相关的慢性非萎缩性（CG）和萎缩性胃炎（AG）在芬兰本地成年人群中的 10 年出生队列特异性患病率将如何下降。
这些预测是基于我们之前对芬兰 2298 名消化不良门诊患者或无症状志愿者的胃窦和胃体内镜活检中 CG 和 AG 的出生队列特异性患病率逐渐显著下降的观察结果，这些患者于 1972-1997 年出生于 1890-1977 年之间，在 1972-1997 年接受了内镜检查。
我们可以预测，在 21 世纪，Hp 相关的 CG 和 AG 将在芬兰本地人群中逐渐消失。从 2020 年代开始，CG 和 AG 的患病率将随着时间的推移而逐渐下降，每一个队列都会如此，并且只会在中年或老年人群中更加突出。最终，由于所有感染了 Hp 的出生队列（代际）都将在 2080 年前去世，Hp 相关的胃炎将不会再在芬兰本地人群中以显著数量出现。相应地，与 Hp 胃炎相关的胃癌和消化性溃疡（十二指肠和胃溃疡）也将在 21 世纪成为芬兰本地人群中越来越罕见的疾病。
