School of Built Environment, Engineering and Computing, Leeds Beckett University, Leeds, United Kingdom.
Carnegie Applied Rugby Research (CARR) Centre, Carnegie School of Sport, Leeds Beckett University, Leeds, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2021 Nov 12;16(11):e0259536. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259536. eCollection 2021.
This study aimed to evaluate team attacking performances in rugby league via expected possession value (EPV) models. Location data from 59,233 plays in 180 Super League matches across the 2019 Super League season were used. Six EPV models were generated using arbitrary zone sizes (EPV-308 and EPV-77) or aggregated according to the total zone value generated during a match (EPV-37, EPV-19, EPV-13 and EPV-9). Attacking sets were considered as Markov Chains, allowing the value of each zone visited to be estimated based on the outcome of the possession. The Kullback-Leibler Divergence was used to evaluate the reproducibility of the value generated from each zone (the reward distribution) by teams between matches. Decreasing the number of zones improved the reproducibility of reward distributions between matches but reduced the variation in zone values. After six previous matches, the subsequent match's zones had been visited on 95% or more occasions for EPV-19 (95±4%), EPV-13 (100±0%) and EPV-9 (100±0%). The KL Divergence values were infinity (EPV-308), 0.52±0.05 (EPV-77), 0.37±0.03 (EPV-37), 0.20±0.02 (EPV-19), 0.13±0.02 (EPV-13) and 0.10±0.02 (EPV-9). This study supports the use of EPV-19 and EPV-13, but not EPV-9 (too little variation in zone values), to evaluate team attacking performance in rugby league.
本研究旨在通过预期控球价值（EPV）模型评估橄榄球联赛中的团队进攻表现。使用了 2019 年超级联赛赛季 180 场超级联赛比赛中的 59233 次比赛的位置数据。使用任意区域大小（EPV-308 和 EPV-77）或根据比赛中产生的总区域值（EPV-37、EPV-19、EPV-13 和 EPV-9）进行聚合生成了六个 EPV 模型。进攻集被视为马尔可夫链，允许根据控球结果估计每个访问区域的价值。使用 KL 散度来评估团队在比赛之间从每个区域（奖励分布）生成的值的可重现性。减少区域数量可以提高比赛之间奖励分布的可重现性，但会降低区域值的变化。在前六场比赛之后，EPV-19（95±4%）、EPV-13（100±0%）和 EPV-9（100±0%）的后续比赛中，已经有 95%或更多的比赛访问了后续比赛的区域。KL 散度值为无穷大（EPV-308）、0.52±0.05（EPV-77）、0.37±0.03（EPV-37）、0.20±0.02（EPV-19）、0.13±0.02（EPV-13）和 0.10±0.02（EPV-9）。本研究支持使用 EPV-19 和 EPV-13，但不支持 EPV-9（区域值变化太小）来评估橄榄球联赛中的团队进攻表现。
