Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme, Abuja, Nigeria.
Department of Community Medicine, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria.
BMC Public Health. 2021 Nov 13;21(1):2086. doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-12110-y.
Diarrhoea is the second commonest cause of under-five mortality accounting for over half a million deaths annually. Although the prevalence of diarrhoea in Plateau State is lower than the national figure, the level remains high despite remarkable progress in the reduction of under-five mortality. This study seeks to determine the pattern of diarrhoea disease among under-fives in Plateau State.
We extracted data from the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response platform between January 2013 and December 2017 and analysed the trends of diarrhoea, age-specific case fatality rate (ASCFR), and seasonal patterns. We modelled the quarterly pattern of diarrhoea cases using additive time series and predicted the expected cases for 2018-2020.
We documented 60,935 cases of diarrhoea with age group 12-59 months having the highest number of cases (49.3%). The age group < 1 month had the highest ASCFR of 0.53%. Seasonal variation showed cases peaked in the first and third quarters of each year, except for the year 2016. The time series projection estimated 16,256, 17,645 and 19,034 cases in the year 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively.
Seasonal variation exists, and trends show an increased pattern of diarrhoeal disease among under-fives. There is a need to strengthen the implementation of diarrhoeal preventive and control strategy in the state and to improve the quality of data reporting.
腹泻是导致五岁以下儿童死亡的第二大常见原因，每年导致超过 50 万人死亡。尽管高原州的腹泻患病率低于全国水平，但尽管在降低五岁以下儿童死亡率方面取得了显著进展，其水平仍然很高。本研究旨在确定高原州五岁以下儿童腹泻病的模式。
我们从 2013 年 1 月至 2017 年 12 月的综合疾病监测和应对平台中提取数据，并分析腹泻的趋势、年龄别病死率（ASCFR）和季节性模式。我们使用加法时间序列对季度腹泻病例模式进行建模，并预测 2018-2020 年的预期病例。
我们记录了 60935 例腹泻病例，其中 12-59 个月年龄组的病例数最多（49.3%）。<1 个月年龄组的 ASCFR 最高，为 0.53%。季节性变化显示，每年第一和第三季度病例最多，2016 年除外。时间序列预测估计 2018 年、2019 年和 2020 年分别有 16256、17645 和 19034 例病例。
存在季节性变化，趋势显示五岁以下儿童腹泻病呈增加模式。需要加强该州腹泻病预防和控制战略的实施，并提高数据报告质量。
