Institute of Physiology I, University of Münster, 48149 Münster, Germany.
Neuroscience and Cognitive Technology Lab, Innopolis University, 42055 Innopolis, Republic of Tatarstan, Russia.
eNeuro. 2022 Feb 9;9(1). doi: 10.1523/ENEURO.0160-21.2021. Print 2022 Jan-Feb.
Seizure prediction is the grand challenge of epileptology. However, effort was devoted to prediction of focal seizures, while generalized seizures were regarded as stochastic events. Long-lasting local field potential (LFP) recordings containing several hundred generalized spike and wave discharges (SWDs), acquired at eight locations in the cortico-thalamic system of absence epileptic rats, were iteratively analyzed in all possible combinations of either two or three recording sites, by a wavelet-based algorithm, calculating the product of the wavelet-energy signaling increases in synchronicity. Sensitivity and false alarm rate of prediction were compared between various combinations, and wavelet spectra of true and false positive predictions were fed to a random forest machine learning algorithm to further differentiate between them. Wavelet analysis of intracortical and cortico-thalamic LFP traces showed a significantly smaller number of false alarms compared with intrathalamic combinations, while predictions based on recordings in Layers IV, V, and VI of the somatosensory-cortex significantly outreached all other combinations in terms of prediction sensitivity. In 24-h out-of-sample recordings of nine Genetic Absence Epilepsy Rats from Strasbourg (GAERS), containing diurnal fluctuations of SWD occurrence, classification of true and false positives by the trained random forest further reduced the false alarm rate by 71%, although at some trade-off between false alarms and sensitivity of prediction, as reflected in relatively low F1 score values. Results provide support for the cortical-focus theory of absence epilepsy and allow the conclusion that SWDs are predictable to some degree. The latter paves the way for the development of closed-loop SWD prediction-prevention systems. Suggestions for a possible translation to human data are outlined.
癫痫预测是癫痫学的重大挑战。然而,人们致力于预测局灶性癫痫发作,而将全身性癫痫发作视为随机事件。在缺乏癫痫大鼠的皮质-丘脑系统的八个位置上获取了包含数百个全身性棘波和尖波放电(SWD)的长时程局部场电位(LFP)记录,通过基于小波的算法对所有可能的两种或三种记录位置的组合进行迭代分析,计算同步性小波能量信号增加的乘积。在各种组合之间比较了预测的敏感性和误报率,并将真实和假阳性预测的小波谱输入随机森林机器学习算法,以进一步区分它们。皮层内和皮质-丘脑 LFP 轨迹的小波分析显示,与丘脑内组合相比,假报警的数量明显减少,而基于感觉皮层 IV、V 和 VI 层记录的预测在预测敏感性方面明显优于所有其他组合。在 9 只 Strasbourg 遗传性失神癫痫大鼠(GAERS)的 24 小时样本外记录中,SWD 发生的昼夜波动,经过训练的随机森林对真阳性和假阳性的分类,将误报率进一步降低了 71%,尽管在预测的误报率和敏感性之间存在一些权衡,这反映在相对较低的 F1 评分值上。结果为失神性癫痫的皮质焦点理论提供了支持,并允许得出 SWD 在某种程度上可预测的结论。后者为开发闭环 SWD 预测-预防系统铺平了道路。概述了将其应用于人类数据的一些建议。