Thibaudon M, Besancenot J-P
Réseau national de surveillance aérobiologique (RNSA), Le Plat du Pin, 11, chemin de la Creuzille, 69690 Brussieu, France.
Réseau national de surveillance aérobiologique (RNSA), Le Plat du Pin, 11, chemin de la Creuzille, 69690 Brussieu, France.
Rev Mal Respir. 2021 Dec;38(10):1025-1036. doi: 10.1016/j.rmr.2021.08.007. Epub 2021 Nov 20.
Pollen and fungal spore concentrations in outdoor air are partly dependent on atmospheric conditions. Since the climate is changing, there is a growing body of research on the effects of climate change on aeroallergens. The present article provides a rapid review of this literature, highlighting the points of agreement, but also drawing attention to the main mistakes to be avoided.
For pollen, the prevailing view is that rising temperatures lead to an earlier start to the pollen season, a longer season, increased allergenic potential and higher concentrations. However, there are exceptions: what is true for one taxon, in one place and at one time, can almost never be generalised. For fungal spores, it is even more difficult to state universal rules.
Four priorities can be set for future research: (1) to look for trends only on sufficiently long series and not to neglect possible trend reversals; (2) to give priority to the local scale and the separate consideration of the various pollen and mycological taxa; (3) not to limit oneself to temperature as an element of explanation, but also to consider the other elements of the climate; (4) not to try to explain any evolution in the abundance or seasonality of aeroallergens by climate change alone.
Many more analytical studies giving precedence to observation over reasoning are still required, without any preconceptions, before it is possible to synthesise the impacts of climate change on pollen and, even more so, on fungal spores.
室外空气中花粉和真菌孢子的浓度部分取决于大气条件。由于气候正在变化，关于气候变化对空气传播变应原影响的研究越来越多。本文对该文献进行了快速回顾，强调了共识点，但也提请注意需要避免的主要错误。
对于花粉，普遍的观点是气温上升会导致花粉季节提前开始、持续时间延长、致敏潜力增加和浓度升高。然而，也有例外情况：在一个地点、一个时间对一个分类单元成立的情况，几乎永远不能一概而论。对于真菌孢子，要阐明普遍规律就更加困难了。
未来研究可以设定四个优先事项：（1）仅在足够长的序列上寻找趋势，不要忽视可能的趋势逆转；（2）优先考虑局部尺度，并分别考虑各种花粉和真菌分类单元；（3）不要仅将温度作为解释因素，还要考虑气候的其他因素；（4）不要试图仅用气候变化来解释空气传播变应原丰度或季节性的任何变化。
在能够综合气候变化对花粉乃至真菌孢子的影响之前，仍然需要进行更多优先基于观察而非推理的分析研究，且不带任何先入之见。
