Department of Computing and Informatics, Bournemouth University, Poole, UK.
Department of Economics, University of Novi Pazar, Novi Pazar, Serbia.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Apr;29(16):23264-23279. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-17476-5. Epub 2021 Nov 20.
In environmental management, many studies have examined the energy consumption-emission nexus in detail. However, for the first time in the literature, this study considers how the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) moderate the contribution of energy consumption to emissions for the four World Bank Income clusters. The system generalised methods of moments are applied to data for 109 countries from 1996 to 2016. Based on the main model (grouped clusters) estimations, the result revealed the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Also, an increase in air transport and consumption of energy releases more carbon emissions to the climate. Interestingly, ECI decreases carbon emission significantly while EPU does not have a significant impact. Moreover, the study revealed that ECI moderated the impact of other variables on emission, but EPU is not a significant moderator. Furthermore, a comparative analysis among the four incomes suggests that the EKC hypothesis holds only in the high-income clusters; ECI is a significant predictor of carbon emission in the four clusters, but it only decreases the emission in high-income clusters. This corroborates the debate on climate change and the productive capacity of high-income countries. Given the foregoing, several policy measures were recommended.
在环境管理中，许多研究都详细探讨了能源消耗与排放的关系。然而，本研究首次考虑了经济复杂性指数（ECI）和经济政策不确定性（EPU）如何调节能源消耗对四个世界银行收入组别的排放的贡献。该研究采用系统广义矩估计方法对 1996 年至 2016 年期间 109 个国家的数据进行了分析。基于主要模型（分组聚类）的估计结果，研究结果表明存在环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说。此外，航空运输的增加和能源消耗会向气候释放更多的碳排放。有趣的是，ECI 显著降低了碳排放，而 EPU 则没有显著影响。此外，研究还揭示了 ECI 调节了其他变量对排放的影响，但 EPU 不是一个显著的调节因素。此外，对四个收入组别的比较分析表明，EKC 假说仅在高收入组中成立；ECI 是四个收入组碳排放的重要预测指标，但它仅能降低高收入组的碳排放。这印证了关于气候变化和高收入国家生产能力的辩论。有鉴于此，本研究提出了几项政策建议。
