Walton Darren, Ellwood Ross, Martin Samara
University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
93911Crow's Nest Research, Wellington, New Zealand.
J Interpers Violence. 2022 Nov;37(21-22):NP20724-NP20743. doi: 10.1177/08862605211055083. Epub 2021 Nov 26.
This study follows 4715 Family Harm cases for which charges are laid (from around 15,000 events from 2018-2020). Comparisons are made between cases where a digitally recorded victim video statement (VVS) is taken to those who (1) make a written statement, (2) refuse to make any statement and (3) present at the public counter and make a written statement. Findings indicate that VVS increases the rates of an early guilty plea by 95% (OR = 1.95, LCL = 1.34, UCL = 2.7) compared to those who decline a VVS and have a written statement. No difference is observed for those presenting to report an event at a public counter. A more modest effect is observed comparing those who refuse a statement altogether (OR = 1.28, LCL = 1.03, UCL = 1.60). A VVS is nearly twice as likely to lead to an early guilty plea. It is reasoned that there is a poor rate of guilty pleas for written statements, rather than an elevation in rates for VVS. Age and gender are unrelated to the elevated rate of pleading guilty to a VVS. Event seriousness is inversely related to pleading guilty, whereas having many prior convictions or being remanded increases the likelihood of the guilty plea.
本研究跟踪了4715起已提起指控的家庭伤害案件（来自2018年至2020年约15000起事件）。对采集了受害者数字录像陈述（VVS）的案件与以下几类案件进行了比较：（1）作出书面陈述的案件；（2）拒绝作出任何陈述的案件；（3）在公共柜台陈述并作出书面陈述的案件。研究结果表明，与拒绝VVS并作出书面陈述的人相比，VVS使早期认罪率提高了95%（比值比[OR]=1.95，下限[LCL]=1.34，上限[UCL]=2.7）。在公共柜台报告事件的人之间未观察到差异。与完全拒绝陈述的人相比，观察到的影响较小（OR=1.28，LCL=1.03，UCL=1.60）。VVS导致早期认罪的可能性几乎是其两倍。据推断，书面陈述的认罪率较低，而非VVS的认罪率有所提高。年龄和性别与VVS的认罪率升高无关。事件的严重程度与认罪呈负相关，而有多次前科或被还押候审会增加认罪的可能性。
