State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters, Faculty of Geographical Science, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China.
Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, 40530, Sweden.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Mar 20;813:151869. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151869. Epub 2021 Nov 23.
Global warming can have positive or negative impacts on society depending on sectors and changes in climate impact drivers, resulting in opportunities or risks. The same holds true for social-economic changes. However, past research has mostly focused on assessing risks, leaving potential opportunities under-addressed. Here, we simulated the impact of climate change and socioeconomic development on livestock snow disasters over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 1986-2100, by integrating the drivers of climate and socioeconomic changes via an event-based disaster risk assessment model. Model results show climate change and socioeconomic development contributes about equally to reducing livestock loss in snow disasters by 4% yr up to 2100 under representative concentration pathway 8.5 and shared-socioeconomic pathway 5. The marginal benefit from climate change was projected to be a 43.2% reduction in annual average loss per degree kelvin warming, and that from socioeconomic development was a 12.4% reduction per 100% increase in gross domestic production. In a 2 °C warmer world, the annual average loss could be 91% smaller compared with the baseline period (1986-2005). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C would reduce the benefit by 5%, requiring a 135% increase in the marginal benefits of prevention capacity to offset the reduction.
全球变暖对社会的影响可能是正面的也可能是负面的，具体取决于部门和气候变化驱动因素的变化，从而带来机遇或风险。社会经济变化也是如此。然而，过去的研究大多侧重于评估风险，而潜在的机遇则被忽视了。在这里，我们通过基于事件的灾害风险评估模型，整合气候变化和社会经济变化的驱动因素，模拟了 1986-2100 年青藏高原牲畜雪灾受气候变化和社会经济发展的影响。结果表明，在代表性浓度路径 8.5 和共享社会经济路径 5 下，到 2100 年，气候变化和社会经济发展对减少牲畜雪灾损失的贡献大致相当，每年减少 4%。气候变化的边际效益预计为每升温 1 摄氏度减少 43.2%的年均损失，社会经济发展的边际效益为国内生产总值每增加 100%减少 12.4%。在全球变暖 2°C的情况下，与基准期（1986-2005 年）相比，年均损失可减少 91%。将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C而不是 2°C，将减少 5%的收益，需要将预防能力的边际收益增加 135%，以抵消这种减少。
