Analyzing Disparity and Rates of Morphological Evolution with Model-Based Phylogenetic Comparative Methods.

Understanding variation in rates of evolution and morphological disparity is a goal of macroevolutionary research. In a phylogenetic comparative methods framework, we present three explicit models for linking the rate of evolution of a trait to the state of another evolving trait. This allows testing hypotheses about causal influences on rates of phenotypic evolution with phylogenetic comparative data. We develop a statistical framework for fitting the models with generalized least-squares regression and use this to discuss issues and limitations in the study of rates of evolution more generally. We show that the power to detect effects on rates of evolution is low in that even strong causal effects are unlikely to explain more than a few percent of observed variance in disparity. We illustrate the models and issues by testing if rates of beak-shape evolution in birds are influenced by brain size, as may be predicted from a Baldwin effect in which presumptively more behaviorally flexible large-brained species generate more novel selection on themselves leading to higher rates of evolution. From an analysis of morphometric data for 645 species, we find evidence that both macro- and microevolution of the beak are faster in birds with larger brains, but with the caveat that there are no consistent effects of relative brain size.[Baldwin effect; beak shape; behavioral drive; bird; brain size; disparity; phylogenetic comparative method; rate of evolution.].