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新冠疫情对土耳其汽油消费的影响。

Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption.

作者信息

Güngör Bekir Oray, Ertuğrul H Murat, Soytaş Uğur

机构信息

Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Turkey.

Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Ankara, Turkey.

出版信息

Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2021 May;166:120637. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637. Epub 2021 Jan 27.

DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637
PMID:34876759
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8640974/
Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.

摘要

本文通过使用涵盖2014 - 2020年期间的独特日数据集，研究了新冠疫情爆发对土耳其汽油消费的影响。对疫情爆发前后基准自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型的预测性能进行了评估。即使是最佳拟合模型的预测在新冠疫情爆发后也惨遭失败。增加波动性可改善预测。由于疫情爆发，消费波动性增加。针对波动性的政策可以减少类似冲击对市场参与者、税收收入和弱势群体的不利影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/71f32ad31688/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/f17b90d7d849/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/bdcff046c89a/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/316ee6e4db70/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/44b19537ac00/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/2e99eb9daf18/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/71f32ad31688/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/f17b90d7d849/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/bdcff046c89a/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/316ee6e4db70/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/44b19537ac00/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/2e99eb9daf18/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9f0/8640974/71f32ad31688/gr6_lrg.jpg

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