新冠疫情对土耳其汽油消费的影响。

Güngör Bekir Oray, Ertuğrul H Murat, Soytaş Uğur

Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Turkey.

Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Ankara, Turkey.

Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2021 May;166:120637. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637. Epub 2021 Jan 27.

This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.

本文通过使用涵盖2014 - 2020年期间的独特日数据集，研究了新冠疫情爆发对土耳其汽油消费的影响。对疫情爆发前后基准自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型的预测性能进行了评估。即使是最佳拟合模型的预测在新冠疫情爆发后也惨遭失败。增加波动性可改善预测。由于疫情爆发，消费波动性增加。针对波动性的政策可以减少类似冲击对市场参与者、税收收入和弱势群体的不利影响。