Laboratory of Water Resources Management and Regional Development, Department of Environmental Engineering (LabGest/UFES), Federal University of Espirito Santo, Brazil.
LabGest/UFES, Federal University of Espirito Santo, Brazil.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Feb 25;809:152168. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152168. Epub 2021 Dec 6.
Research has shown the effort to develop conceptual models that relate anthropic stressors to changes in aquatic environment state. Several of these models come from the structure Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact and Response (DPSIR), which has been used since the 1990s. However, there is a lack of conceptual models that consider in its structure the connection between the damages caused in the aquatic environment and technological disasters. This research develops a general conceptual model based on the DPSIR structure incorporating technological disasters. Based on the general conceptual model guidelines and the methodological procedure associated with it, a model was developed to assess the Lower Doce River waters' state, by considering Fundão's iron-ore dam failure scenario, which took place in November 2015, in the municipality of Mariana, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The relevant aspects of this adaptation of the DPSIR structure were: I) it considers the combined effect of drivers and pressures that already existed in the study area with those originated from the technological disaster; and II) the causal relationships among elements of the model were explicited through a systemic conceptual map, allowing a more holistic and integrated view of the problem. The application of the conceptual model to Doce River's scenario before the disaster allowed us to verify that a set of environmental pressures was already acting in a way to stress it, making the river vulnerable. For the post-disaster scenario, it was possible to determine that the already existing vulnerability condition, caused by urbanization, agriculture and mining, had been intensified by adding new pressures due to the tailings dam failure.
研究表明，人们努力开发概念模型，将人为压力因素与水生态环境状态变化联系起来。其中有几个模型源自于结构驱动因素、压力、状态、影响和响应（DPSIR），该模型自 20 世纪 90 年代以来就已经被应用。然而，目前缺乏将水生态环境损害与技术灾害之间的联系纳入其结构的概念模型。本研究基于 DPSIR 结构，结合技术灾害，开发了一个通用的概念模型。根据通用概念模型指南和与之相关的方法程序，我们开发了一个模型，以评估下多西河的水生态环境状态，同时考虑到 Fundão 铁矿尾矿坝 2015 年 11 月在巴西米纳斯吉拉斯州马里亚纳市发生溃坝的情况。对 DPSIR 结构进行这种适应性调整的相关方面有：I）它考虑了在研究区域已经存在的驱动因素和压力的综合影响，以及由技术灾害引发的驱动因素和压力；以及 II）通过系统概念图阐明了模型中各要素之间的因果关系，从而更全面、更综合地看待问题。在 Doce 河发生灾害之前，该概念模型的应用使我们能够验证一组环境压力已经在对其施加压力，使河流变得脆弱。对于灾后情景，可以确定由城市化、农业和矿业引起的已有脆弱性条件因尾矿坝溃坝而产生的新压力而加剧。
