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厄瓜多尔新冠疫情期间不同海拔地区超额死亡率数据分析

Analysis of Excess Mortality Data at Different Altitudes During the COVID-19 Outbreak in Ecuador.

作者信息

Ortiz-Prado Esteban, Fernandez Naranjo Raul Patricio, Vasconez Eduardo, Simbaña-Rivera Katherine, Correa-Sancho Trigomar, Lister Alex, Calvopiña Manuel, Viscor Ginés

机构信息

One Health Research Group, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de las Americas, Quito, Ecuador.

Department of Cell Biology, Physiology and Immunology of the Faculty of Biology, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.

出版信息

High Alt Med Biol. 2021 Dec;22(4):406-416. doi: 10.1089/ham.2021.0070.

Abstract

Ortiz-Prado, Esteban, Raul Patricio Fernandez Naranjo, Eduardo Vasconez, Katherine Simbaña-Rivera, Trigomar Correa-Sancho, Alex Lister, Manuel Calvopiña, and Ginés Viscor. Analysis of excess mortality data at different altitudes during the COVID-19 outbreak in Ecuador. . 22:406-416, 2021. It has been speculated that living at high altitude confers some risk reduction in terms of SARS-CoV-2 infection, reduced transmissibility, and arguable lower COVID-19-related mortality. We aim to determine the number of excess deaths reported in Ecuador during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to different altitude categories among 221 cantons in Ecuador, ranging from sea level to 4,300 m above. A descriptive ecological country-wide analysis of the excess mortality in Ecuador was performed since March 1, 2020, to March 1, 2021. Every canton was categorized as lower (for altitudes 2,500 m or less) or higher (for altitudes >2,500 m) in a first broad classification, as well as in two different classifications: The one proposed by Imray et al. in 2011 (low altitude <1,500 m, moderate altitude 1,500-2,500 m, high altitude 2,500-3,500 m, or very high altitude 3,500-5,500 m) and the one proposed by Bärtsch et al. in 2008 (near sea level 0-500 m, low altitude 500-2,000 m, moderate altitude 2,000-3,000 m, high altitude 3,000-5,500 m, and extreme altitude 5,500 m). A Poisson fitting analysis was used to identify trends on officially recorded all-caused deaths and those attributed to COVID-19. In Ecuador, at least 120,573 deaths were recorded during the first year of the pandemic, from which 42,453 were catalogued as excessive when compared with the past 3 years of averages (2017-2019). The mortality rate at the lower altitude was 301/100,000 people, in comparison to 242/100,000 inhabitants in elevated cantons. Considering the four elevation categories, the highest excess deaths came from towns located at low altitude (324/100,000), in contrast to the moderate altitude (171/100,000), high-altitude (249/100,000), and very high-altitude (153/100,000) groups. This is the first report on COVID-19 excess mortality in a high-altitude range from 0 to 4,300 m above sea level. We found that absolute COVID-19-related excess mortality is lower both in time and in proportion in the cantons located at high and very high altitude when compared with those cantons located at low altitude.

摘要

奥尔蒂斯 - 普拉多、埃斯特万、劳尔·帕特里西奥·费尔南德斯·纳兰霍、爱德华多·巴斯孔内斯、凯瑟琳·辛巴尼亚 - 里韦拉、特里戈马尔·科雷亚 - 桑乔、亚历克斯·利斯特、曼努埃尔·卡尔沃皮尼亚和希内斯·维斯科尔。厄瓜多尔新冠疫情期间不同海拔地区的超额死亡率数据分析。《……》22:406 - 416,2021年。据推测,生活在高海拔地区在感染新冠病毒方面有一定的风险降低作用,传播性降低,且可以说与新冠相关的死亡率较低。我们旨在确定厄瓜多尔新冠疫情第一年报告的超额死亡人数,这些死亡人数与厄瓜多尔221个县的不同海拔类别相关,海拔范围从海平面到海拔4300米以上。对2020年3月1日至2021年3月1日期间厄瓜多尔的超额死亡率进行了全国性描述性生态分析。在第一个宽泛分类中,每个县被分为低海拔(海拔2500米及以下)或高海拔(海拔>2500米),此外还有两种不同分类:一种是2011年伊姆雷等人提出的分类(低海拔<1500米,中海拔1500 - 2500米,高海拔2500 - 3500米,或极高海拔3500 - 5500米),另一种是2008年巴尔奇等人提出的分类(近海平面0 - 500米,低海拔500 - 2000米,中海拔2000 - 3000米,高海拔3000 - 5500米,以及极端海拔5500米)。采用泊松拟合分析来确定官方记录的全因死亡和归因于新冠病毒死亡的趋势。在厄瓜多尔,疫情第一年至少记录了120573例死亡,与过去三年(2017 - 2019年)的平均水平相比,其中42453例被列为超额死亡。低海拔地区的死亡率为每10万人301例,而高海拔县的死亡率为每10万居民242例。考虑到四个海拔类别,超额死亡人数最多的来自低海拔城镇(每10万人324例),相比之下,中海拔(每10万人171例)、高海拔(每10万人249例)和极高海拔(每10万人153例)组的情况则不同。这是关于海拔0至海拔4300米高海拔范围内新冠超额死亡率的首份报告。我们发现,与低海拔县相比,高海拔和极高海拔县与新冠相关的绝对超额死亡率在时间和比例上都较低。

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