Yu Yang, Guo SongLin, Chang XiaoChen
School of Finance, Renmin University of China, China.
Resour Policy. 2022 Mar;75:102531. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102531. Epub 2021 Dec 22.
We examine the time-frequency dynamics of spillovers between oil price shocks and economic performance globally. We use both time and frequency domains simultaneously to find the response of macroeconomic performance to changes in oil prices during the global financial and pandemic crises. Using Wavelet analysis, this seminal study explores the connectedness between oil price shocks and economic activities during COVID-19 and the financial crises of 2008. This study finds that both economic activities and oil prices have shown high power during the period of global financial crises. The recently COVID-19 outbreak indicates significant volatility in economic activities and oil prices during the period of crisis. Moreover, we observe a strong interconnectedness between oil prices and economic activities during global financial crises and COVID-19 crises. We argue that a shock to oil prices in global financial crises and the COVID-19 outbreak has serious repercussions for economic activities. The highest total connectedness between oil prices and economic activities is observed during the COVID-19 outbreak, which advocates that the speed of information transmission amid oil prices and economic activities is greater in the era of the COVID-19 outbreak as compared to other global financial crises. The results of this study have significant implications for policymakers.
我们研究了全球油价冲击与经济表现之间溢出效应的时频动态。我们同时使用时域和频域来探究在全球金融危机和大流行危机期间宏观经济表现对油价变化的反应。通过小波分析,这项开创性研究探讨了2008年金融危机和新冠疫情期间油价冲击与经济活动之间的关联性。该研究发现,在全球金融危机期间,经济活动和油价均表现出较高的能量。近期的新冠疫情爆发表明,危机期间经济活动和油价出现了显著波动。此外,我们观察到在全球金融危机和新冠疫情危机期间,油价与经济活动之间存在着紧密的相互联系。我们认为,全球金融危机和新冠疫情爆发期间的油价冲击对经济活动产生了严重影响。在新冠疫情爆发期间,观察到油价与经济活动之间的总关联性最高,这表明与其他全球金融危机相比,在新冠疫情爆发时代,油价与经济活动之间的信息传递速度更快。本研究结果对政策制定者具有重要意义。