Department of Economics, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania.
PLoS One. 2018 Oct 8;13(10):e0202951. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0202951. eCollection 2018.
The new European model stipulates the achievement of an inclusive, sustainable and intelligent economic growth. Increasing the share of renewable energy is one of the factors that improve the quality of economic growth, similar to research, development and investment in human capital. In this paper we tested the correlation between economic growth and renewable energy consumption for ten European Union (EU) member states from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the period 1990-2014, using Auto-regressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling procedure, a technique that captures causal relationships both on a short run and on a long run. The short run perspective reveals the transition towards a new energy paradigm, while the long run approach corresponds to the long-term equilibrium of the analyzed factors. Our results shows that, in the short run, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Renewable Energy Consumption (REC) dynamics are independent in Romania and Bulgaria, while in Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia an increasing renewable energy consumption improves the economic growth. The hypothesis of bi-directional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth is validated in the long run for both the whole group of analyzed countries as well as in the case of seven CEE states which were studied individually. These results allow us to look into the feasibility of the Europe 2020 goals regarding the increase of energy efficiency and to propose public policies to achieve these goals.
新的欧洲模式规定了包容性、可持续和智能的经济增长的实现。增加可再生能源的份额是提高经济增长质量的因素之一,类似于对人力资本的研究、开发和投资。在本文中,我们使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型程序检验了 1990-2014 年期间东欧和中欧(CEE)的十个欧盟(EU)成员国的经济增长与可再生能源消费之间的相关性,这种技术可以捕捉短期和长期的因果关系。短期视角揭示了向新能源范式的转变,而长期方法对应于分析因素的长期均衡。我们的结果表明,在短期内,罗马尼亚和保加利亚的国内生产总值(GDP)和可再生能源消费(REC)动态是独立的,而在匈牙利、立陶宛和斯洛文尼亚,可再生能源消费的增加则提高了经济增长。从长期来看,可再生能源消费与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系的假设在整个分析国家组以及单独研究的七个 CEE 国家中都得到了验证。这些结果使我们能够研究欧洲 2020 年提高能源效率目标的可行性,并提出实现这些目标的公共政策。