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挪威 1990-2020 年亲密伴侣杀人案:发生率和特征分析。

Intimate Partner Homicides in Norway 1990-2020: An Analysis of Incidence and Characteristics.

机构信息

Centre for Research and Education in Forensic Psychiatry, 155272Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway.

Faculty of Health and Social Sciences, 5562Molde University College, Oslo, Norway.

出版信息

J Interpers Violence. 2022 Dec;37(23-24):NP21599-NP21625. doi: 10.1177/08862605211063508. Epub 2022 Jan 4.

Abstract

Intimate partner homicide (IPH) is an extreme outcome of intimate partner violence (IPV). It is a societal challenge that needs to be investigated over time to see whether changes occur concerning the incidence of IPH, IPH characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and contact with service providers. This study includes the total Norwegian cohort of IPHs between 1990 and 2019 with a final conviction ( = 224). Poisson regression was applied to model the incidence rate of homicide and IPH between 1990 and 2020 as well as the incidence rates of immigrant perpetrators and victims. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to test the association between characteristics and period 1990-2012 compared to after 2012 as dependent variable. The results show that though homicide incidence rates in Norway declined steadily and significantly after 1990, IPH rates did not begin to decline until 2015. The following IPH characteristics showed reduced incidence after 2012: IPH-suicide, perpetrators with a criminal record, and IPHs perpetrated subsequent to preventive interventions towards the perpetrator. Sentence length in IPH cases had increased. Changes were not observed for any of the other IPH characteristics investigated. IPH is often the culmination of long-term violence and can be prevented, even if risk assessment is challenging due to the low base rates.

摘要

亲密伴侣杀人(IPH)是亲密伴侣暴力(IPV)的极端结果。这是一个社会挑战,需要随着时间的推移进行调查,以观察 IPH 的发生率、IPH 特征、社会经济因素以及与服务提供者的接触是否发生变化。本研究包括 1990 年至 2019 年期间在挪威发生的所有最终定罪的亲密伴侣杀人案件(=224)。应用泊松回归模型来模拟 1990 年至 2020 年期间的杀人案和 IPH 的发生率,以及移民犯罪者和受害者的发生率。多变量逻辑回归分析用于测试特征与 1990-2012 年期间与 2012 年之后作为因变量的关联。结果表明,尽管挪威的杀人案发生率自 1990 年以来稳步显著下降,但 IPH 发生率直到 2015 年才开始下降。以下 IPH 特征在 2012 年之后显示发生率降低:IPH-自杀、有犯罪记录的犯罪者,以及在对犯罪者进行预防性干预之后发生的 IPH。IPH 案件的刑期有所增加。对于调查的其他任何 IPH 特征,都没有观察到变化。IPH 通常是长期暴力的结果,可以预防,即使由于低基础率,风险评估具有挑战性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8a4b/9679568/1d721f393094/10.1177_08862605211063508-fig1.jpg

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