Maximum standardized uptake value change rate before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy can predict early recurrence in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer: a multi-institutional cohort study of 220 patients in Japan.

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) followed by esophagectomy can improve the prognosis of locally advanced esophageal cancer (LAEC). However, LAEC reportedly recurred in 17-21% of patients within 6 months post surgery. Thus, current treatment strategies may be inadequate for LAECs with poor prognosis. Preoperative identification of patients with poor prognosis might aid in modification of treatment strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of the maximum standardized uptake value change rate (ΔSUV) in predicting treatment effects on the primary lesion, prognosis, and LAEC recurrence.

METHODS

This study involved 220 esophageal cancer patients who underwent esophagectomy after NAC at three facilities in Japan. The optimal cut-off point for ΔSUV in predicting tumor regression grade (TRG) was calculated and used to assess the correlation between ΔSUV and postoperative survival.

RESULTS

The optimal cut-off point for ΔSUV was 0.5. The 5-year overall survival rate in patients with ΔSUV ≥ 0.5 was significantly higher than that in patients with ΔSUV < 0.5 (71.5% vs. 50.5%, P = 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified ΔSUV (hazards ratio, 0.496; P = 0.004) as an independent prognostic factor. Among 199 patients evaluated for recurrence, 24 (12.1%) showed recurrence within 6 months post surgery. Univariate analysis revealed ΔSUV as the only predictor for early recurrence (odds ratio, 0.222; P = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

ΔSUV before and after NAC is clinically useful as it could help predict TRG, survival outcome, and early recurrence within 6 months post esophagectomy and is easily obtainable in general clinical practice. We believe that it may also help determine suitable treatment strategies for LAEC.