Department of Integrative Biology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Jan 18;119(3). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2114257119.
Climate change threatens to destabilize ecological communities, potentially moving them from persistently occupied "basins of attraction" to different states. Increasing variation in key ecological processes can signal impending state shifts in ecosystems. In a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem consisting of three distinct regions spread across 260 km of the Oregon coast, we show that annually cleared sites are characterized by communities that exhibit signs of increasing destabilization (loss of resilience) over the past decade despite persistent community states. In all cases, recovery rates slowed and became more variable over time. The conditions underlying these shifts appear to be external to the system, with thermal disruptions (e.g., marine heat waves, El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and shifts in ocean currents (e.g., upwelling) being the likely proximate drivers. Although this iconic ecosystem has long appeared resistant to stress, the evidence suggests that subtle destabilization has occurred over at least the last decade.
气候变化有可能破坏生态群落的稳定性，使它们从长期占据的“吸引盆地”转移到不同的状态。关键生态过程的变化增加可能预示着生态系统即将发生状态转变。在俄勒冈州海岸 260 公里范围内分布的三个不同区域组成的多岩石潮间带元生态系统中，我们发现，尽管群落状态保持稳定，但在过去十年中，每年都会被清理的地点上的群落表现出不稳定（弹性丧失）的迹象在增加。在所有情况下，随着时间的推移，恢复速度都在放缓且变得更加多变。这些转变的潜在原因似乎来自系统外部，热干扰（如海洋热浪、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）和海流变化（如上升流）可能是直接驱动因素。尽管这个标志性的生态系统长期以来似乎对压力有抵抗力，但证据表明，至少在过去十年中，已经发生了微妙的失稳。
