Cardiorenal disease in the United States: Future health care burden and potential impact of novel therapies.

Currently, concerted efforts to identify, prevent, and treat type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), heart failure (HF), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) comorbidities are lacking at the institutional level, with emphasis placed on individual specialties. An integrated approach to tackle T2DM, HF, and CKD within the context of cardiorenal disease has the potential to improve outcomes and reduce costs at the system level. To synthesize published evidence describing the burden of those diagnosed with T2DM, HF, and CKD in the United States as individual discrete chronic conditions, in order to evaluate the potential economic impact of novel therapies in this population. We developed a compartmental Markov model with an annual time cycle to model an evolving prevalent US patient population with T2DM, HF, or CKD over the period 2021-2030 (either in isolation or combined). The model was used to explore the potential impact of novel therapies such as sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors on future disease burden, by extrapolating the results of relevant clinical trials to representative patient populations. The model estimates that total prevalence across all disease states will have increased by 28% in 2030. Cumulatively, the direct health care cost of cardiorenal disease between 2021 and 2030 is estimated at $4.8 trillion. However, treatment with dapagliflozin has the potential to reduce disease prevalence by 8.0% and estimated cumulative service delivery costs by 3.6% by 2030. Considering a holistic approach when managing patients with cardiorenal disease offers an opportunity to reduce the disease burden over the next 10 years in the US population. This work was funded by AstraZeneca, which provided support for data analysis. McEwan, Morgan, and Boyce are employees of Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff, UK, which received fees from AstraZeneca in relation to this study. Song and Huang are employees of AstraZeneca. Bergenheim is an employee of AstraZeneca and holds AstraZeneca stocks/stock options. Green has no conflicts of interest to declare.