使用带有混合效应的 Cox 模型对埃塞俄比亚女性初婚年龄的决定因素进行建模。

Modeling the determinant of time to age at first marriage among women in Ethiopia using Cox models with mixed effects.

机构信息

Department of Statistics, Natural and Computational Sciences, Assosa University, P. Box 18, Assosa, Ethiopia.

Department of Statistics, Natural and Computational Sciences, Debre Markos University, P. Box 269, Debre Markos, Ethiopia.

出版信息

Reprod Health. 2022 Jan 31;19(1):32. doi: 10.1186/s12978-022-01339-4.

DOI:10.1186/s12978-022-01339-4

PMID:35101053

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8805294/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Time to age at first marriage of women is the duration of time until the age at which they started living with their first partner. Time to age at first marriage is widely considered a proxy indicator for the age at which women begin to be exposed to the risks inherent in sexual activity. The purpose is to model the determinant of time to age at first marriage among women in Ethiopia using Cox models with mixed effects.

METHODS

The 2016 Ethiopian Demography and Health survey sample was selected using a two-stage cluster design. The data set in this study were obtained from the Demography and Health survey conducted in Ethiopia in 2016. In this study, we used Cox models with mixed effects.

RESULTS

Of all 15,683 women aged 15-49 years, 11,405 (72.72%) were married with the median and mean age at first marriage 17 years and 18 years, respectively. Cox frailty survival model showed that residence, educational level, occupation, work status of women& head education level of households were the most significant factors whereas religion, access to media and wealth index of a household of women were not significant factors at 5% level of significance. The significant clustering effect showed that heterogeneity among the regions on age at first marriage was present.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study determined the duration of time until the age at first marriage and indicated relevant solutions for marriage-related problems of women aged 15-49 years in Ethiopia. Women residing in rural area of Ethiopia and had lower education level were married earlier. Therefore, programs to reduce the high rate of early marriage in Ethiopia should give attention to women education and women residing in rural area.

摘要

背景

女性初婚年龄是指她们开始与第一任伴侣生活的时间长度。初婚年龄通常被认为是女性开始接触性活动固有风险的年龄的代理指标。目的是使用带有混合效应的 Cox 模型来对埃塞俄比亚女性初婚年龄的决定因素进行建模。

方法

2016 年埃塞俄比亚人口与健康调查样本采用两阶段聚类设计进行选择。本研究的数据来自 2016 年在埃塞俄比亚进行的人口与健康调查。在这项研究中，我们使用了带有混合效应的 Cox 模型。

结果

在所有 15683 名 15-49 岁的女性中，有 11405 名（72.72%）已婚，初婚的中位数和平均值分别为 17 岁和 18 岁。Cox 脆弱生存模型显示，居住地、教育水平、职业、妇女的工作状况以及家庭主妇的教育水平是最重要的因素，而宗教、获取媒体和妇女家庭的财富指数则不是在 5%的显著水平上显著的因素。显著的聚类效应表明，初婚年龄在各地区之间存在异质性。