Freeman Nikki L B, Sperger John, El-Zaatari Helal, Kahkoska Anna R, Lu Minxin, Valancius Michael, Virkud Arti V, Zikry Tarek M, Kosorok Michael R
Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Department of Nutrition, University of North Carolina School of Medicine.
Obs Stud. 2021 Jul;7(1):77-94. doi: 10.1353/obs.2021.0024.
In the twenty years since Dr. Leo Breiman's incendiary paper was first published, algorithmic modeling techniques have gone from controversial to commonplace in the statistical community. While the widespread adoption of these methods as part of the contemporary statistician's toolkit is a testament to Dr. Breiman's vision, the number of high-profile failures of algorithmic models suggests that Dr. Breiman's final remark that "the emphasis needs to be on the problem and the data" has been less widely heeded. In the spirit of Dr. Breiman, we detail an emerging research community in statistics - data-driven decision support. We assert that to realize the full potential of decision support, broadly and in the context of precision health, will require a culture of social awareness and accountability, in addition to ongoing attention towards complex technical challenges.
自利奥·布莱曼博士那篇极具煽动性的论文首次发表以来的二十年里,算法建模技术在统计界已从备受争议变得司空见惯。虽然这些方法作为当代统计学家工具包的一部分被广泛采用,证明了布莱曼博士的远见卓识,但算法模型引人注目的失败案例表明,布莱曼博士的最后一句话“重点需要放在问题和数据上”却未得到广泛重视。本着布莱曼博士的精神,我们详细介绍了统计学中一个新兴的研究领域——数据驱动的决策支持。我们断言,要在广泛的范围内以及精准健康的背景下充分发挥决策支持的潜力,除了持续关注复杂的技术挑战外,还需要一种社会意识和责任感的文化。