Spatial identification of restored priority areas based on ecosystem service bundles and urbanization effects in a megalopolis area.

Rapid urbanization has altered the structure and function of urban ecosystems with respect to the demand for planning ecological restoration to inhibit ecological degradation. However, there is still a challenge to quickly and effectively identify the restored priority areas to maximize ecological service (ES) supply and enhance human well-being. Taking the Shenzhen metropolitan region as a case study area, this study identified the restored priority sites based on the ES bundles evolution and urbanization effects. The ES bundles were identified by analyzing the spatial dynamics under the hybrid urban landscape, then the impact of urbanization on the ES bundles was explored using linear regression analysis characterized by different levels of urbanization in different stages. Furthermore, the spatial statistics were used to identify the priority sites. The results showed that 68.78% of the grids had changed their ES bundles in terms of their quantities, types, and sites in Shenzhen during 1978-2018. The urbanization driver spatially shifts from provision of service to regulation and cultural ecosystem services and significantly negatively influences the composition and structure of the ES bundles in different urbanization stages. 1196 of the 1 square kilometer grids, which accounted for 54.17%, were identified to prioritize for ecological restoration in Shenzhen. However, only 4.08% of them need to set as the key ecological restoration site. This study explored an effectively spatial way to implement ecological restoration planning in a rapidly urbanized area.