Zhang Jun, Liu Deruo
Department of Thoracic Surgery, Peking University China-Japan Friendship School of Clinical Medicine, Beijing, China.
Transl Cancer Res. 2021 May;10(5):2002-2008. doi: 10.21037/tcr-20-3291.
We aimed to study the clinical manifestations of the patients with stage M1 Siewert type II esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma and more than 1-year overall survival and establish a prognosis prediction model.
From the SEER database, 638 patients were chosen between 2011 and 2017. Patients were separated into two groups, including the long-time survival group (≥1 year), and the shorter time survival group (<1 year). The analysis of differences in clinical characteristics (age, race, sex, stage T, stage N, grade, surgery, distant metastasis, survival status and time) between the different groups was performed by using the chi-square test. The predictors of overall survival was selected by using the Cox regression. The calibration curves and C-index were used to verify the nomogram.
The chi-square test showed that the proportion of patients with the age of ≥65 years in the long time survival group was lower than the short time survival group (P=0.008). The proportion of patients who received surgery was higher in the long time survival group (13.5% 5.3%, P<0.001). There was a significantly lower proportions of bone metastasis in the long time survival group (P=0.036). Multivariate analyses indicated factors such as age, surgery, bone, liver, and lung metastasis were associated with prognosis. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.860.
Age, surgery, bone, liver, and lung metastasis were related to the overall survival of a patient with stage M1 Siewert type II esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma. We constructed a nomogram to help predict 1-year overall survival for a patient with stage M1 Siewert type II esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma.
我们旨在研究M1期Siewert II型食管胃交界腺癌且总生存期超过1年的患者的临床表现，并建立一个预后预测模型。
从SEER数据库中选取了2011年至2017年间的638例患者。患者被分为两组，包括长期生存组（≥1年）和短期生存组（<1年）。采用卡方检验分析不同组之间临床特征（年龄、种族、性别、T分期、N分期、分级、手术、远处转移、生存状态和时间）的差异。通过Cox回归选择总生存期的预测因素。使用校准曲线和C指数来验证列线图。
卡方检验显示，长期生存组中年龄≥65岁的患者比例低于短期生存组（P = 0.008）。长期生存组中接受手术的患者比例更高（13.5%对5.3%，P < 0.001）。长期生存组中骨转移的比例显著更低（P = 0.036）。多因素分析表明年龄、手术、骨、肝和肺转移等因素与预后相关。列线图的C指数为0.860。
年龄、手术、骨、肝和肺转移与M1期Siewert II型食管胃交界腺癌患者的总生存期相关。我们构建了一个列线图以帮助预测M1期Siewert II型食管胃交界腺癌患者的1年总生存期。
