Nigussie Teshager Zerihun, Zewotir Temesgen, Muluneh Essey Kebede
Department of Statistics, College of Science, Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia.
School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, College of Agriculture Engineering and Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2022 Feb;40:100475. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2021.100475. Epub 2021 Dec 22.
Malaria is a severe public health problem in the Amhara region, Ethiopia. A retrospective study was conducted to model and interpret the effects of climate variability and environmental factors on the monthly malaria surveillance data of 152 districts in the region. The data were analyzed using the Bayesian generalized Poisson spatiotemporal model. Malaria incidence had significant seasonal, temporal, and spatial variations in the region. The risk of malaria incidence was decreased by 24% per 100 m increase in altitude. Monthly minimum temperature decreases the risk of malaria by 2.2% per a 1°C increment. The risk of malaria transmission was increased by 8% per 100 mm rise in the total monthly rainfall of districts. Besides, long-lasting insecticidal net coverage significantly reduces malaria risk by a factor of 0.8955. The finding suggests that malaria transmission was higher in northern and western districts. Hence, concerned bodies should consider seasonal, temporal, and spatial variations and effects of climate and environmental factors for intervention and elimination.
疟疾是埃塞俄比亚阿姆哈拉地区一个严重的公共卫生问题。开展了一项回顾性研究，以模拟和解读气候变异性及环境因素对该地区152个区月度疟疾监测数据的影响。使用贝叶斯广义泊松时空模型对数据进行了分析。该地区疟疾发病率存在显著的季节性、时间性和空间性变化。海拔每升高100米，疟疾发病率风险降低24%。月最低气温每升高1°C，疟疾风险降低2.2%。各区月总降雨量每增加100毫米，疟疾传播风险增加8%。此外，长效驱虫蚊帐覆盖率显著降低疟疾风险，降低系数为0.8955。研究结果表明，北部和西部地区的疟疾传播率较高。因此，相关机构应考虑季节性、时间性和空间性变化以及气候和环境因素的影响，以进行干预和消除疟疾。
