Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia.
Centre for Freshwater Ecosystems, La Trobe University, Wodonga, Victoria, Australia.
Ecol Appl. 2022 Jun;32(4):e2563. doi: 10.1002/eap.2563. Epub 2022 Apr 10.
Fisheries and natural water resources across the world are under increasing pressure from human activity, including fishing and irrigated agriculture. There is an urgent need for information on the climatic/hydrologic drivers of fishery productivity that can be readily applied to management. We use a generalized linear mixed model framework of catch curve regression to resolve the key climatic/hydrological drivers of recruitment in Barramundi Lates calcarifer using biochronological (otolith aging) data collected from four river-estuary systems in the Northern Territory, Australia. These models were then used to generate estimates of the year class strength (YCS) outcomes of different water abstraction scenarios (ranging from 10% to 40% abstraction per season/annum) for two of the rivers in low, moderate, and high discharge years. Barramundi YCS displayed strong interannual variation and was positively correlated with regional monsoon activity in all four rivers. River-specific analyses identified strong relationships between YCS and several river-specific hydrology variables, including wet and dry season discharge and flow duration. Water abstraction scenario models based on YCS-hydrology relationships predicted reductions of >30% in YCS in several cases, suggesting that increased water resource development in the future may pose risks for Barramundi recruitment and fishery productivity. Our study demonstrates the importance of the tropical monsoon as a driver of Barramundi recruitment and the potential for detrimental impacts of increased water abstraction on fishery productivity. The biochronological and statistical approaches we used have the potential to be broadly applied to inform policy and management of water resource and fisheries.
世界范围内的渔业和天然水资源正承受着人类活动的日益压力，包括渔业和灌溉农业。迫切需要了解对渔业生产力有气候/水文驱动因素的信息，以便能够将其直接应用于管理。我们使用了一种广义线性混合模型框架的渔获量曲线回归方法，利用从澳大利亚北领地四个河口水系收集的生物年代学（耳石年龄）数据，来确定金目鲈（Lates calcarifer）的关键气候/水文繁殖驱动力。然后，我们使用这些模型来生成不同水资源抽取方案（每年每季抽取 10%至 40%）的两年河流的当年鱼群强度（YCS）预测结果。金目鲈的 YCS 显示出强烈的年际变化，并与所有四个河流的区域季风活动呈正相关。河流特定的分析确定了 YCS 与几个河流特定的水文变量之间的强烈关系，包括干湿季的流量和持续时间。基于 YCS-水文学关系的水资源抽取方案模型预测，在几种情况下 YCS 减少超过 30%，这表明未来增加水资源开发可能对金目鲈的繁殖和渔业生产力构成风险。我们的研究表明，热带季风作为金目鲈繁殖的驱动因素的重要性，以及增加水资源抽取对渔业生产力产生不利影响的潜力。我们使用的生物年代学和统计方法有可能广泛应用于水资源和渔业管理的政策和管理。
