Na Kyoung-Sae, Geem Zong Woo, Cho Seo-Eun
Department of Psychiatry, Gachon University College of Medicine, Incheon, 21565, Republic of Korea.
College of IT Convergence, Gachon University, Seongnam, 13120, Republic of Korea.
Neuropsychiatr Dis Treat. 2022 Feb 2;18:163-172. doi: 10.2147/NDT.S336947. eCollection 2022.
PURPOSE: Suicide is an important health and social concern worldwide. Both suicidal ideation and suicide rates are higher in the elderly population than in other age groups; thus, more careful attention and targeted interventions are required. Therefore, we have developed a model to predict suicidal ideation in the community-dwelling elderly aged of >55 years. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A random forest algorithm was applied to those who participated in the Korea Welfare Panel. We used a total of 26 variables as potential predictors. To resolve the imbalance in the dataset resulting from the low frequency of suicidal ideation, training was performed by applying the synthetic minority oversampling technique. The performance index was calculated by applying the predictive model to the test set, which was not included in the training process. RESULTS: A total of 6410 elderly Korean aged of >55 (mean, 71.48; standard deviation, 9.56) years were included in the analysis, of which 2.7% had suicidal ideation. The results for predicting suicidal ideation using the 26 chosen variables showed an AUC of 0.879, accuracy of 0.871, sensitivity of 0.750, and specificity of 0.874. The most significant variable in the predictive model was the severity of depression, followed by life satisfaction and self-esteem factors. Basic demographic variables such as age and gender demonstrated a relatively small effect. CONCLUSION: Machine learning can be used to create algorithms for predicting suicidal ideation in community-dwelling elderly. However, there are limitations to predicting future suicidal ideation. A predictive model that includes both biological and cognitive indicators should be created in the future.
目的:自杀是全球重要的健康和社会问题。老年人群中的自杀意念和自杀率均高于其他年龄组;因此,需要更密切的关注和针对性干预。为此,我们开发了一种模型来预测55岁以上社区居住老年人的自杀意念。 患者与方法:将随机森林算法应用于参与韩国福利面板调查的人群。我们总共使用了26个变量作为潜在预测因素。为解决因自杀意念出现频率低导致的数据集中的不平衡问题,采用合成少数过采样技术进行训练。通过将预测模型应用于未包含在训练过程中的测试集来计算性能指标。 结果:共有6410名年龄大于55岁(平均年龄71.48岁;标准差9.56岁)的韩国老年人纳入分析,其中2.7%有自杀意念。使用所选的26个变量预测自杀意念的结果显示,曲线下面积(AUC)为0.879,准确率为0.871,敏感性为0.750,特异性为0.874。预测模型中最显著的变量是抑郁严重程度,其次是生活满意度和自尊因素。年龄和性别等基本人口统计学变量的影响相对较小。 结论:机器学习可用于创建预测社区居住老年人自杀意念的算法。然而,预测未来自杀意念存在局限性。未来应创建一个同时包含生物学和认知指标的预测模型。
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