Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Havana, Cuba, March-June 2020: Epidemiological Implications.

INTRODUCTION

The percentage of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases worldwide is estimated at 18-50%; 53% in Cuba specifically, and 58% in Havana, the Cuban capital and the 2020 epicenter of the country's COVID-19 epidemic. These figures, however, do not represent the transmission capacity or behavior of asymptomatic cases. Understanding asymptomatic transmission's contribution to SARS-CoV-2 spread is of great importance to disease control and prevention.

OBJECTIVE

Identify the epidemiological implications of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in Havana, Cuba, during the first wave of the epidemic in 2020.

METHODS

We carried out a cross-sectional study of all confirmed COVID-19 cases diagnosed in Havana, Cuba, from March 16 through June 30, 2020. The information was obtained through review of the standardized form for investigation of suspected and confirmed cases. Examined variables included age, sex, occupation, case type and source of infection. Cases were divided into asymptomatic and symptomatic groups, and transmission was characterized through the creation of a contact matrix. Analysis was carried out in Epidat and R.

RESULTS

We studied 1287 confirmed cases, of which 57.7% (743) were asymptomatic, and 42.3% (544) were symptomatic. Symptomatic presentation was the most common for both imported and introduced cases, while asymptomatic presentation was more common in autochthonic cases and infections from an undetermined source. Asymptomatic infection was more common in groups aged ⟨20 and 20-59 years, while symptomatic infection was more common in those aged ⟩60 years. In the contact matrix, 34.6% of cases (445/1287) were not tied to other cases, and 65.4% (842/1287) were infectious-infected dyads, with symptomatic-symptomatic being the most common combination. The majority of primary cases (78.5%; 1002/1276) did not generate secondary cases, and 85.6% (658/743) of asymptomatic cases did not lead to other cases (although one asymptomatic superspreader led to 90 cases in a single event). However, 63.2% (344/544) of symptomatic primary cases generated secondary cases, and 11 symptomatic superspreaders spawned 100 secondary cases in different events.

CONCLUSIONS

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was the most common form of COVID-19 in Havana during the study period, but its capacity for contagion was lower than that of symptomatic individuals. Superspreader events under specific conditions played an important role in sustaining the epidemic.