Novel factors to predict respiratory viral disease progression in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant recipients.

We assessed novel factors and the immunodeficiency scoring index (ISI) to predict progression to lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) among hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients presenting with upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) with 12 viruses in the PCR era. We retrospectively analyzed the first respiratory virus detected by multiplex PCR in allogeneic HCT recipients (4/2008-9/2018). We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine factors for progression to LRTI within 90 days among patients presenting with URTI. A total of 1027 patients (216 children and 811 adults) presented with URTI only. Among these, 189 (18%) progressed to LRTI (median: 12 days). Multivariable models demonstrated a history of  >1 transplant, age  ≥40 years, time post-HCT (≤30 days), systemic steroids, hypoalbuminemia, hyperglycemia, cytopenia, and high ISI (scores 7-12) were associated with an increased risk of progression to LRTI. Respiratory syncytial virus and human metapneumovirus showed the highest progression risk. Patients with ≥3 independent risk factors or high ISI scores were highly likely to progress to LRTI. We identified novel risk factors for progression to LRTI, including history of multiple transplants and hyperglycemia, suggesting an intervention opportunity with glycemic control. ISI and number of risk factors appear to predict disease progression across several viruses.