Chowdhury S M E K, Forkan Mohammad, Ahmed Shams Forruque, Agarwal Praveen, Shawkat Ali A B M, Muyeen S M
Department of Mathematics, University of Chittagong, Chattogram, 4331, Bangladesh.
Science and Math Program, Asian University for Women, Chattogram, 4000, Bangladesh.
Comput Biol Med. 2022 Apr;143:105264. doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2022.105264. Epub 2022 Jan 25.
Asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus disease and the infected individual prediction has become very important in the COVID-19 outbreak study. The asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission studies are still ongoing to assess their impacts on disease monitoring and burden. However, there has been limited research on how asymptomatic and symptomatic transmissions together can affect the coronavirus disease outbreak. A mathematical model is therefore needed to be developed in order to assess the effect of these transmissions on the coronavirus disease dynamics. This paper develops a mathematical model concerning asymptomatic and symptomatic disease transmission processes in the COVID-19 outbreak. The model sensitivity has been analysed in terms of the variance of each parameter, and the local stability at two equilibrium points have been discussed in terms of the basic reproduction number (R). It is found that the disease-free equilibrium gets stable for R < 1 whereas the endemic equilibrium becomes stable for R > 1 and unstable otherwise. The proportion of the effect of asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission rates on R is calculated to be approximately between 1 and 3. The results demonstrate that asymptomatic transmission has a significant impact compared to symptomatic transmission in the disease outbreak. Outcomes of this study will contribute to setting an effective control strategy for the COVID-19 outbreak.
新型冠状病毒疾病的无症状传播以及感染者预测在新冠疫情研究中变得非常重要。无症状和有症状传播的研究仍在进行，以评估它们对疾病监测和负担的影响。然而，关于无症状和有症状传播共同作用如何影响新冠疫情的研究还很有限。因此，需要建立一个数学模型来评估这些传播对新冠病毒疾病动态的影响。本文建立了一个关于新冠疫情中无症状和有症状疾病传播过程的数学模型。从每个参数的方差角度分析了模型的敏感性，并根据基本再生数（R）讨论了两个平衡点处的局部稳定性。研究发现，当R<1时，无病平衡点是稳定的；而当R>1时，地方病平衡点是稳定的，否则是不稳定的。计算得出无症状和有症状传播率对R的影响比例约在1到3之间。结果表明，在疾病爆发中，无症状传播比有症状传播有更显著的影响。本研究结果将有助于制定有效的新冠疫情防控策略。
