OBJECTIVE

To investigate the predictors of stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) and poor functional outcome in patients with hyperacute cerebral infarction (HCI) by combining clinical factors, laboratory tests and neuroimaging features.

METHODS

We included 205 patients with HCI from November 2018 to December 2019. The diagnostic criterion for SAP was occurrence within 7 days of the onset of stroke. Poor outcome was defined as a functional outcome based on a 3-months MRS score >3. The relationship of demographic, laboratory and neuroimaging variables with SAP and poor outcome was investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Fifty seven (27.8%) patients were diagnosed with SAP and 40 (19.5%) developed poor outcomes. ADS score (OR = 1.284; 95% CI: 1.048-1.574; = 0.016), previous stroke (OR = 2.630; 95% CI: 1.122-6.163; = 0.026), consciousness (OR = 2.945; 95% CI: 1.514-5.729; < 0.001), brain atrophy (OR = 1.427; 95% CI: 1.040-1.959; = 0.028), and core infarct volume (OR = 1.715; 95% CI: 1.163-2.528; = 0.006) were independently associated with the occurrence of SAP. Therefore, we combined these variables into a new SAP prediction model with the C-statistic of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.78-0.90). Fasting plasma glucose (OR = 1.404; 95% CI: 1.202-1.640; < 0.001), NIHSS score (OR = 1.088; 95% CI: 1.010-1.172; = 0.026), previous stroke (OR = 4.333; 95% CI: 1.645-11.418; = 0.003), SAP (OR = 3.420; 95% CI: 1.332-8.787; = 0.011), basal ganglia-dilated perivascular spaces (BG-dPVS) (OR = 2.124; 95% CI: 1.313-3.436; = 0.002), and core infarct volume (OR = 1.680; 95% CI: 1.166-2.420; = 0.005) were independently associated with poor outcome. The C-statistic of the outcome model was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81-0.94). Furthermore, the SAP model significantly improved discrimination and net benefit more than the ADS scale, with a C-statistic of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.69-0.83).

CONCLUSIONS

After the addition of neuroimaging features, the models exhibit good differentiation and calibration for the prediction of the occurrence of SAP and the development of poor outcomes in HCI patients. The SAP model could better predict the SAP, representing a helpful and valid tool to obtain a net benefit compared with the ADS scale.