Venter Zander S, Shackleton Charlie, Faull Andrew, Lancaster Lizette, Breetzke Gregory, Edelstein Ian
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research - NINA, Sognsveien 68, 0855 Oslo, Norway.
Department of Environmental Science, Rhodes University, Makhanda 6140, South Africa.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jun 15;825:154005. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154005. Epub 2022 Feb 19.
Assumptions about the link between green space and crime mitigation are informed by literature that overwhelmingly originates in the Global North. Little is known about the association between green spaces and crime in the Global South. We utilized 10 years of precinct-level crime statistics (n = 1152) over South Africa, a global crime hotspot, to test the hypothesis that green space is associated with reduced crime rates. We found that, after controlling for a number of socio-demographic confounders (unemployment, income, age, education, land use and population density), for every 1% increase in total green space there is a 1.2% (0.7 to 1.7%; 95% confidence interval) decrease in violent crime, and 1.3% (0.8 to 1.8%) decrease in property crime, with no effect on sexual crimes. However, the direction of the association changed for property crimes when exploring the effect of green space characteristics including tree cover and park accessibility. Property crimes increase by 0.4% (0.1 to 0.7%) with a percentage increase in tree cover, and by 0.9% (0.5 to 1.3%) with every kilometer increase in proximity to a public park. Further research, including experimental studies, is needed to better isolate causal mechanisms behind crime-green space associations, especially considering that green space may map to race and income inequality and that there may be more crime reporting in affluent areas. Nevertheless, our results provide a complementary contribution to the evidence from the Global North, highlighting the need for more nuanced definitions of green space and its characteristics when considering links to crime. When viewed in light of the broader suite of ecosystem services provided by green space, our results support urban greening as a major strategy towards achieving just and sustainable cities and towns.
关于绿地与犯罪缓解之间联系的假设，主要源自绝大多数来自全球北方地区的文献。对于全球南方地区绿地与犯罪之间的关联，我们所知甚少。我们利用了南非（一个全球犯罪热点地区）10年的辖区级犯罪统计数据（n = 1152），来检验绿地与犯罪率降低相关这一假设。我们发现，在控制了一些社会人口混杂因素（失业、收入、年龄、教育、土地利用和人口密度）之后，绿地总面积每增加1%，暴力犯罪率就会下降1.2%（0.7%至1.7%；95%置信区间），财产犯罪率下降1.3%（0.8%至1.8%），而对性犯罪没有影响。然而，在探究包括树木覆盖和公园可达性等绿地特征的影响时，财产犯罪的关联方向发生了变化。树木覆盖百分比每增加1%，财产犯罪率就会上升0.4%（0.1%至0.7%），距离公共公园每增加一公里，财产犯罪率就会上升0.9%（0.5%至1.3%）。需要进一步开展研究，包括实验研究，以更好地分离犯罪与绿地关联背后的因果机制，特别是考虑到绿地可能与种族和收入不平等相关，而且富裕地区可能有更多犯罪报告。尽管如此，我们的研究结果为来自全球北方地区的证据提供了补充，强调在考虑与犯罪的联系时，需要对绿地及其特征进行更细致入微的定义。从绿地所提供的更广泛的生态系统服务来看，我们的研究结果支持将城市绿化作为实现公正和可持续城镇的一项主要战略。
