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多样性原则与证据评价。

The diversity principle and the evaluation of evidence.

机构信息

Northwestern University, Swift Hall 102, 2029 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL, 60208, USA.

出版信息

Psychon Bull Rev. 2022 Aug;29(4):1270-1294. doi: 10.3758/s13423-022-02065-5. Epub 2022 Feb 22.

Abstract

The diversity principle-the intuitive notion that diverse evidence is, all else equal, more persuasive, suggestive, confirmatory, or otherwise better than less varied sets of evidence-is a clear component of scientific practice and endorsed by scientists and philosophers alike. A great body of psychological research on people's understanding and application of the diversity principle exists, yet it remains divided into multiple, distinct research communities, which often come to conflicting conclusions. One reason for this is that the range of tasks and domains investigated is appropriately wide. Without a common understanding of what it means for evidence to be diverse, however, it is hard to compare what are at times diverging results. To address this, I review three perspectives from philosophy on what makes diverse evidence valuable. I will use the perspectives to frame results from psychology and assess whether people understand the value of diverse evidence on both an intuitive and explicit level. My conclusions have a leveled optimism: While people are generally aware of the value of diverse evidence, they often struggle to apply what they know. I argue this is because people do not assess the diversity of their evidence as a matter of course but rely on its intuitive diversity as a cue to its evidential diversity. When this cue is absent, people can overlook otherwise obvious problems with their evidence. This has potential consequences for how people seek out, evaluate, and understand evidence from a variety of domains, but leaves open the possibility that various interventions-such as education or reminders to attend to the quality of evidence-may increase people's application of what they know.'

摘要

多样性原则——即多样性的证据在其他条件相同的情况下比变化较少的证据更有说服力、更具启发性、更能证实或更好的直观概念——是科学实践的一个明确组成部分,得到了科学家和哲学家的认可。人们对多样性原则的理解和应用的大量心理学研究已经存在,但它仍然分为多个不同的研究群体,这些群体经常得出相互冲突的结论。造成这种情况的一个原因是,所调查的任务和领域的范围适当广泛。然而,如果没有对证据多样性意味着什么的共同理解,就很难比较有时相互矛盾的结果。为了解决这个问题,我回顾了哲学上关于使证据多样化有价值的三个观点。我将使用这些观点来构建心理学的结果,并评估人们在直觉和明确层面上是否理解多样化证据的价值。我的结论是持乐观态度的:尽管人们通常意识到多样化证据的价值,但他们往往难以应用自己所知道的知识。我认为这是因为人们不会理所当然地将证据的多样性作为评估其证据多样性的依据,而是依赖其直观的多样性作为其证据多样性的线索。当这个线索不存在时,人们可能会忽略证据中明显的问题。这对人们从各种领域寻找、评估和理解证据的方式产生了潜在的影响,但也为各种干预措施(如教育或提醒注意证据质量)提供了增加人们应用知识的可能性。

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