Martins Irene, Soares Joana, Neuparth Teresa, Barreiro Aldo F, Xavier Cândido, Antunes Carlos, Santos Miguel M
CIMAR/CIIMAR-Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research, University of Porto, Av. General Norton de Matos S/N, 4450-208 Matosinhos, Portugal.
FCUP-Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre S/N, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal.
Toxics. 2022 Jan 20;10(2):46. doi: 10.3390/toxics10020046.
Due to non-linear interactions, the effects of contaminant mixtures on aquatic ecosystems are difficult to assess, especially under temperature rise that will likely exacerbate the complexity of the responses. Yet, under the current climatic crisis, assessing the effects of water contaminants and temperature is paramount to understanding the biological impacts of mixtures of stressors on aquatic ecosystems. Here, we use an ecosystem model followed by global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to prioritize the effects of four single emerging contaminants (ECs) and their mixture, combined with two temperature rise scenarios, on the biomass production of a NE Atlantic estuary. Scenarios ran for 10 years with a time-step of 0.1 days. The results indicate that macroinvertebrate biomass was significantly explained by the effect of each single EC and by their mixture but not by temperature. Globally, the most adverse effects were induced by two ECs and by the mixture of the four ECs, although the sensitivity of macroinvertebrates to the tested scenarios differed. Overall, the present approach is useful to prioritize the effects of stressors and assess the sensitivity of the different trophic groups within food webs, which may be of relevance to support decision making linked to the sustainable management of estuaries and other aquatic systems.
由于非线性相互作用，污染物混合物对水生生态系统的影响难以评估，尤其是在气温上升的情况下，这可能会加剧反应的复杂性。然而，在当前的气候危机下，评估水中污染物和温度的影响对于理解压力源混合物对水生生态系统的生物影响至关重要。在此，我们使用一个生态系统模型，随后进行全局敏感性分析（GSA），以确定四种单一新兴污染物（ECs）及其混合物，结合两种升温情景，对东北大西洋河口生物量生产的影响优先级。情景模拟运行10年，时间步长为0.1天。结果表明，大型无脊椎动物生物量受每种单一EC及其混合物的影响显著，但不受温度影响。总体而言，两种EC以及四种EC的混合物产生的不利影响最大，尽管大型无脊椎动物对测试情景的敏感性有所不同。本方法有助于确定压力源的影响优先级，并评估食物网中不同营养级的敏感性，这可能有助于支持与河口和其他水生系统可持续管理相关的决策。
