Marine heatwaves impair the thermal refugia potential of marginal reefs in the northern South China Sea.

Frequent marine heatwaves (MHWs), concurrent with climate warming, threaten global low-latitude, pristine coral reefs, leading to growing interest in identifying marginal coral reefs (relatively high-latitude and/or turbid reef environments) that can serve as thermal refugia from mass coral bleaching. However, the thermal refugia potential of marginal reefs remains controversial. We evaluated the thermal refugia potential of inshore reefs in the northern South China Sea (nSCS), a globally typical marginal reef system, by characterizing the long-term trend of MHW intensity and frequency and assessing thermal stress during a mass bleaching event in summer 2020. An unprecedented peak intensity of around 20 °C-weeks of cumulative heat stress, associated with a prolonged anomalous western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and weakened monsoon activity, induced record-breaking bleaching. The geographical variability of bleaching was strongly related to the extent of heat exposure and satellite-derived temperature anomalies. Under ongoing global warming, the frequency and intensity of MHWs over nSCS coral habitats show a markedly increasing trend, especially during the last decade. Intense MHWs and coral bleaching have already occurred throughout all El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (e.g., 2010, 2015, and 2020). Climate change has pushed marginal coral reefs to or beyond the limits of their resilience, and frequent MHW events have amplified the increasing risk of thermal stress. There are no long-term thermal refugia for marginal reefs in the nSCS.