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厄尔尼诺现象是2023年东南亚海洋异常变暖的关键驱动因素。

El Niño was a key driver of anomalous ocean warming in Southeast Asia in 2023.

作者信息

Tan Fangyi, Samanta Dhrubajyoti, Morgan Kyle, Martin Patrick, Chua Stephen, Aw Zihan, Lai Isaac, Meltzner Aron J, Wang Jingyu, Horton Benjamin P

机构信息

Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.

Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 May 8;15(1):16106. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-99511-w.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-99511-w
PMID:40341545
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12062352/
Abstract

In 2023, global ocean heat content reached unprecedented values since records began in 1960. The translation of global ocean heat into regional and local-scale ocean warming remains poorly understood because of limited observational data, particularly within Southeast Asia. Here, we investigate the 2023 ocean warming event in Southeast Asia using near-continuous 41-month in-situ ocean temperature observations from the Singapore Strait, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) measurements, and high-resolution reanalysis products. We document anomalous ocean warming across the Singapore Strait and surrounding South China Sea and Indonesian Seas to depths of at least 40 m. Peak SSTs of 1.8 °C above the climatological mean were recorded in the central Sunda Shelf in November 2023 for the first time in > 40 years. Concurrent anomalous freshening of the Singapore Strait was observed, with average salinity below the climatological mean from October to December. We identify a southward migration of warm temperature anomalies beginning with the onset of the El Niño in July 2023 near the Luzon Strait. This occurred alongside southward shifts in mean sea-level pressure and near-surface ocean currents in the region. We attribute these observations to the southward shift of the North Equatorial Current bifurcation latitude, which permitted the intrusion of Pacific western boundary currents into the South China Sea and Indonesian seas. Compared to the oceanic drivers, atmospheric forcings played a limited role in driving the ocean warming in 2023. Our study highlights El Niño as the key driver of the ocean warming in Southeast Asia in 2023, and emphasises the need for expanded continuous, in-situ ocean temperature monitoring to enhance understanding of evolving ocean-atmosphere dynamics and impacts in Southeast Asia under a warming climate.

摘要

2023年,全球海洋热含量达到了自1960年有记录以来的前所未有的值。由于观测数据有限,特别是在东南亚地区,全球海洋热量向区域和地方尺度海洋变暖的转化仍未得到很好的理解。在这里,我们利用新加坡海峡近41个月的连续原位海洋温度观测数据、卫星海面温度(SST)测量数据和高分辨率再分析产品,对2023年东南亚的海洋变暖事件进行了调查。我们记录了新加坡海峡及周边南海和印度尼西亚海域至少40米深度范围内的异常海洋变暖。2023年11月,巽他陆架中部的SST峰值比气候平均值高出1.8°C,这是40多年来首次出现。同时观测到新加坡海峡出现异常变淡现象,10月至12月的平均盐度低于气候平均值。我们发现,从2023年7月吕宋海峡附近出现厄尔尼诺现象开始,暖温异常向南迁移。这一现象伴随着该地区平均海平面气压和近表层洋流的南移。我们将这些观测结果归因于北赤道流分叉纬度的南移,这使得太平洋西部边界流能够侵入南海和印度尼西亚海域。与海洋驱动因素相比,大气强迫在2023年推动海洋变暖方面所起的作用有限。我们的研究强调了厄尔尼诺是2023年东南亚海洋变暖的关键驱动因素,并强调需要扩大连续的原位海洋温度监测,以增进对气候变暖背景下东南亚不断演变的海洋-大气动力学及其影响的理解。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a56d/12062352/95f9bf79a9f8/41598_2025_99511_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a56d/12062352/95f9bf79a9f8/41598_2025_99511_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a56d/12062352/95f9bf79a9f8/41598_2025_99511_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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