Center for Tobacco Products, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 10903 New Hampshire Avenue, Silver Spring, MD 20993, USA.
Center for Health Analytics, Media, and Policy, RTI International, 3040 E. Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA.
Addict Behav. 2022 Jul;130:107286. doi: 10.1016/j.addbeh.2022.107286. Epub 2022 Feb 18.
This study seeks to validate the original and expanded susceptibility scales for smokeless tobacco (SLT) use among a longitudinal sample of rural male youth. We also compare the predictive validity of both scales for SLT.
Data are from a five-wave longitudinal sample of rural males in the Unites States aged 11-16 at baseline. Data were collected from January 2016 to December 2018. We used a series of logistic regressions to identify whether individual demographic variables, the original (use SLT soon, in next year, if friend offers), or the expanded (original plus curiosity) susceptibility scales predicted experimentation with SLT by 2018. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of both scales were also calculated to determine reliability. All analyses were limited to 2016 never SLT users.
Both susceptibility scales were significant predictors of SLT initiation by follow-up. Susceptible youth had three times the odds of SLT initiation by follow-up compared to youth who were non-susceptible. Both scales have high specificity, identifying a large proportion of never users as non-susceptible. Sensitivity for the original scale was 37.0% and increased to 44.2% for the expanded scale. The PPV was approximately 20% for both the original and expanded scales.
The SLT susceptibility scales are valid for predicting future SLT initiation; however, there remains room for improvement as the sensitivity of both scales is relatively low compared to the smoking scale. Future research should examine additional methods to identify youth at risk of SLT initiation.
本研究旨在验证用于农村男性青年的无烟气烟草（SLT）使用的原始和扩展易感性量表，并比较这两种量表对 SLT 的预测效度。
数据来自于美国农村男性的一个五波纵向样本，基线时年龄为 11-16 岁。数据收集于 2016 年 1 月至 2018 年 12 月。我们使用一系列逻辑回归来确定个体人口统计学变量、原始（很快使用 SLT、明年、如果朋友提供）或扩展（原始加上好奇心）易感性量表是否预测到 2018 年的 SLT 实验。还计算了两种量表的灵敏度、特异性、阳性预测值（PPV）和阴性预测值（NPV），以确定可靠性。所有分析均限于 2016 年从未使用过 SLT 的人群。
两种易感性量表都是 SLT 起始的显著预测因子。与非易感青年相比，易感青年在随访时 SLT 起始的可能性是其三倍。两种量表特异性都很高，将很大一部分从未使用者识别为非易感者。原始量表的灵敏度为 37.0%，扩展量表的灵敏度增加到 44.2%。原始和扩展量表的 PPV 均约为 20%。
SLT 易感性量表可有效预测未来 SLT 起始；然而，与吸烟量表相比，两种量表的灵敏度相对较低，因此仍有改进的空间。未来的研究应该研究识别 SLT 起始风险的青年的其他方法。
