Pascal Mathilde, Wagner Vérène, Corso Magali, Lagarrigue Robin, Solet Jean-Louis, Daudens Elise, Aubert Lydéric, Rousseau Cyril
Sante Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France.
Int J Biometeorol. 2022 Jun;66(6):1057-1065. doi: 10.1007/s00484-022-02257-7. Epub 2022 Mar 3.
Tropical areas and small islands are identified as highly vulnerable to climate change, and already experiencing shifts in their temperature distribution. However, the knowledge on the health impacts of temperatures under tropical marine climate is limited. We explored the influence of temperature on mortality in four French overseas regions located in French Guiana, French West Indies, and in the Indian Ocean, between 2000 and 2015.
Distributed lag non-linear generalized models linking temperature and mortality were developed in each area, and relative risks were combined through a meta-analysis. Models were used to estimate the fraction of mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures. The role of humidity was also investigated.
An increased risk of mortality was observed when the temperature deviated from median. Results were not modified when introducing humidity. Between 2000 and 2015, 979 deaths [confidence interval (CI) 95% 531:1359] were attributable to temperatures higher than the 90th percentile of the temperature distribution, and 442 [CI 95% 178:667] to temperature lower than the 10th percentile.
Heat already has a large impact on mortality in the French overseas regions. Results suggest that adaptation to heat is relevant under tropical marine climate.
热带地区和小岛屿被认为极易受到气候变化影响，且其温度分布已在发生变化。然而，关于热带海洋气候下温度对健康影响的知识有限。我们探讨了2000年至2015年期间温度对位于法属圭亚那、法属西印度群岛和印度洋的四个法国海外地区死亡率的影响。
在每个地区建立了将温度与死亡率联系起来的分布滞后非线性广义模型，并通过荟萃分析合并相对风险。模型用于估计非最佳温度导致的死亡率比例。还研究了湿度的作用。
当温度偏离中位数时，观察到死亡率风险增加。引入湿度后结果未改变。2000年至2015年期间, 979例死亡 [95%置信区间 (CI) 531:1359] 可归因于高于温度分布第90百分位数的温度，442例 [CI 95% 178:667] 可归因于低于第10百分位数的温度。
高温已经对法国海外地区的死亡率产生了重大影响。结果表明，在热带海洋气候下，适应高温是有意义的。
