Consultant to the American College of Dentists Foundation Private practice of periodontics and implantology.
J Hist Dent. 2021 Winter;69(3):182-187.
Since 1918, the world has experienced three additional pandemics, 1957, 1968, and 2009 - each less severe than the 1918 pandemic but raising the question of whether a high severity pandemic on the scale of 1918 could occur in modern times. Many experts have thought so and have recommended global preparation for possible pandemics as current preparedness is seen to warrant improvement. Clearly, hindsight suggests that we were insufficiently prepared in 2020 and much attention has been given to this situation. Looking back and looking forward, considering the issue of pandemics-the ultimate lesson suggests that "we can never be too prepared." It has been said that all pandemics follow the same basic course: they begin, they escalate, they attenuate, and they end. What differentiates one pandemic from the other is what we do to bend the curve during the escalation phase and how quickly we can deploy the lessons learned as the enormity of the disease progression becomes painstakingly evident. When this is over, we would like to say with confidence that "we did what needed to be done when it needed to be done." As health care professionals we should ask no more that this and as a society we should expect no less.
自 1918 年以来，世界经历了另外三次大流行，分别是 1957 年、1968 年和 2009 年——每一次都不如 1918 年的大流行严重，但都提出了这样一个问题，即在现代是否可能发生类似于 1918 年那样严重程度的大流行。许多专家都认为会如此，并建议为可能发生的大流行做好全球准备，因为目前的准备工作被认为需要改进。显然，事后看来，我们在 2020 年准备不足，人们对这种情况给予了极大关注。回顾过去，展望未来，考虑到大流行问题——最终的教训表明，“我们永远都不能准备过头”。有人说，所有大流行都遵循相同的基本过程：它们开始、升级、减弱和结束。一种大流行与另一种大流行的区别在于，我们在升级阶段采取了什么措施来减缓曲线的上升速度，以及当疾病的严重程度变得明显时，我们能够多快地运用所吸取的教训。当这一切结束时，我们希望满怀信心地说：“当需要做的时候，我们已经做了需要做的事情。”作为医疗保健专业人员，我们不应要求更多，作为一个社会，我们也不应期望更少。
