Naili Maryem, Lahrichi Younès
Higher Institute of Commerce and Business Administration (Groupe ISCAE), BP. 8114, Casablanca, Morocco.
Heliyon. 2022 Feb 15;8(2):e08960. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08960. eCollection 2022 Feb.
Non-performing loans (NPLs, henceforth) represent the main challenge that jeopardizes the steadiness of the banking sector. The purpose of this study is to explore the main determinants of banks' non-performing loans in emerging markets. To better understand the hidden aspects of these determinants, the current research employs a panel approach and dynamic data estimates through Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) using data of 53 banks listed in five Middle East and North African (MENA) emerging markets between 2000 and 2019. This study documents that GDP growth, unemployment, bank capitalization, bank performance, bank operating inefficiency, bank ownership concentration, inflation, sovereign debt and bank size are the main determinants of NPLs, whereas, loan growth, bank diversification and interbank competition were found to have an insignificant impact on NPLs. This analysis is motivated by the recent economic changes surrounding the financial systems in emerging countries with the aim to provide new evidence and insights. The results show that non-performing loans can be explained mainly by macroeconomic variables and bank-specific factors with interesting differences in their quantitative impacts. This study has substantial theoretical and practical contributions. It shows strong evidence on the leading indicators of future problematic loans. The identification of these factors would help regulators address appropriate interventions, design ample credit policies and adopt adjusted prudential regulations. Further, it empowers the regulatory authorities with an in-depth understanding of credit risk determinants, allowing them to place emphasis on risk management systems and procedures that minimize borrowers' default in order to avert future financial instability. Our findings underscore the necessity of closely monitoring bank-specific factors along with reinforcing country level mechanisms to reduce banks' credit risk.
不良贷款(以下简称NPLs)是危及银行业稳定的主要挑战。本研究的目的是探索新兴市场中银行不良贷款的主要决定因素。为了更好地理解这些决定因素的潜在方面,本研究采用面板方法和动态数据估计,通过广义矩估计法(GMM),使用2000年至2019年期间在中东和北非(MENA)五个新兴市场上市的53家银行的数据。本研究表明,国内生产总值增长、失业率、银行资本充足率、银行绩效、银行运营效率低下、银行所有权集中度、通货膨胀、主权债务和银行规模是不良贷款的主要决定因素,而贷款增长、银行多元化和银行间竞争对不良贷款的影响不显著。这一分析的动机是新兴国家金融体系最近的经济变化,旨在提供新的证据和见解。结果表明,不良贷款主要可以由宏观经济变量和银行特定因素来解释,它们在定量影响上存在有趣的差异。本研究具有重大的理论和实践贡献。它为未来有问题贷款的领先指标提供了有力证据。识别这些因素将有助于监管机构进行适当干预、设计充足的信贷政策并采用调整后的审慎监管。此外,它使监管当局能够深入了解信用风险决定因素,使他们能够强调风险管理系统和程序,以尽量减少借款人的违约,从而避免未来的金融不稳定。我们的研究结果强调了密切监测银行特定因素以及加强国家层面机制以降低银行信用风险的必要性。