Departments of Statistical Sciences and Sociology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
Demography. 2022 Apr 1;59(2):587-605. doi: 10.1215/00703370-9779784.
In recent decades, the relationship between the average length of life for those who die in the first year of life-the life table quantity a10-and the level of infant mortality, on which its calculation is often based, has broken down. The very low levels of infant mortality in the developed world correspond to a range of a10 quantities. We illustrate the competing effect of falling mortality and reduction in preterm births on a10 through two populations with very different levels of premature birth-infants born to non-Hispanic White mothers and infants born to non-Hispanic Black mothers in the United States-using linked birth and infant death cohort data. Through simulation, we further demonstrate that falling mortality reduces a10, while a reduction in premature births increases it. We use these observations to motivate the formulation of a new approximation formula for a10 in low-mortality contexts, which aims to incorporate differences in preterm birth through a proxy measure-the ratio of infant to under-five mortality. Models are built and tested using data from the Human Mortality Database. Model results and validation show that the newly proposed model outperforms existing alternatives.
近几十年来,在生命表数量 a10 与婴儿死亡率之间的关系已经破裂,后者通常是其计算的基础,而婴儿死亡率则处于极低水平。在发达国家,婴儿死亡率非常低,对应的 a10 数量范围也很广。我们通过使用美国非西班牙裔白人和非西班牙裔黑人生育的婴儿的出生队列数据,说明了死亡率下降和早产减少对 a10 的竞争影响。通过模拟,我们进一步证明了死亡率的下降降低了 a10,而早产的减少则增加了它。我们利用这些观察结果来推动制定一种新的低死亡率环境下的 a10 近似公式,该公式旨在通过一个代理指标——婴儿与五岁以下儿童死亡率的比率——来纳入早产差异。使用来自人类死亡率数据库的数据构建和测试了模型。模型结果和验证表明,新提出的模型优于现有替代模型。
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