Department of Banking & Finance, University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus, Nsukka, Nigeria.
Social Science Unit, School of General Studies, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria.
PLoS One. 2022 Mar 4;17(3):e0264082. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264082. eCollection 2022.
This study empirically examined the impact of external debt on economic growth. Also, the interactions of governance, external debt and external debt volatility were further investigated with emphasize on the interective effect of governance as proxied by Kaufmann, D., (2007) quality governance measures such as; government effectiveness, political stability, voice and accountability, regulatory quality and corruption control on economic growth. The study utilized annual time series data, focusing on thirty selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 1997 to 2020. The Dynamic System Generalised Method of Moments estimation technique was adopted while controlling for conventional sources of economic growth. Empirical findings from the study reveal that external debt and external debt volatility have a negative and significant impact on economic growth in SSA. Furthermore, the interaction of governance indicators, external debt and its volatility, had a positive impact on economic growth in SSA. This study recommends that SSA government should endeavor to avoid excessive external debt to promote the regions' capacity to invest in her financial prospects, and to circumvent the danger of repayment of loans using her small income. The SSA governments should also improve the quality of governance by ensuring political stability, minimising corruption, implementing sound policies and regulations that can permit and promote economic growth through the development of the private sector. The governments must ensure that every borrowed debt is properly supervised and utilised for its purposes to spur economic growth. More so, the Guidotti-Greenspan rule of Reserve adequacy should be applied to keep excess borrowings in check.
这项研究从经验上考察了外债对经济增长的影响。此外，还进一步研究了治理、外债和外债波动的相互作用，并强调了治理(Kaufmann, D., 2007)的交互作用，通过政府效能、政治稳定、发言权和问责制、监管质量和腐败控制等质量治理措施来衡量，对经济增长的影响。本研究利用了 1997 年至 2020 年期间 30 个选定的撒哈拉以南非洲国家的年度时间序列数据。采用动态系统广义矩估计技术，同时控制经济增长的传统来源。研究结果表明，外债和外债波动对撒哈拉以南非洲的经济增长有负向和显著的影响。此外，治理指标、外债及其波动的相互作用对撒哈拉以南非洲的经济增长有积极的影响。本研究建议，撒哈拉以南非洲政府应努力避免过度外债，以促进该地区投资其金融前景的能力，并避免用微薄的收入偿还贷款的风险。撒哈拉以南非洲政府还应通过发展私营部门，改善治理质量，确保政治稳定，减少腐败，实施健全的政策和法规，促进经济增长。政府必须确保每笔借款都得到妥善监督和用于刺激经济增长。此外，应该应用 Guidotti-Greenspan 储备充足规则来控制过度借款。
