Institute for Global Ecology, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901, USA.
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1098 XH Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2022 Apr 25;377(1849):20200502. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0502. Epub 2022 Mar 7.
Much has yet to be learned of the spatial patterning of pre-Columbian people across the Tropical Andes. Using compiled archaeological data and a suite of environmental variables, we generate an ensemble species distribution model (SDM) that incorporates general additive models, random forest models and Maxent models to reconstruct spatial patterns of pre-Columbian people that inhabited the Tropical Andes east of the continental divide, within the modern countries of Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador. Within this region, here referred to as the eastern Andean flank, elevation, mean annual cloud frequency, distance to rivers and precipitation of the driest quarter are the environmental variables most closely related to human occupancy. Our model indicates that 11.04% of our study area (65 368 km) was likely occupied by pre-Columbian people. Our model shows that 30 of 351 forest inventory plots, which are used to generate ecological understanding of Andean ecosystems, were likely occupied in the pre-Columbian period. In previously occupied sites, successional trajectories may still be shaping forest dynamics, and those forests may still be recovering from the ecological legacy of pre-Columbian impacts. Our ensemble SDM links palaeo- and neo-ecology and can also be used to guide both future archaeological and ecological studies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Tropical forests in the deep human past'.
关于哥伦布时代前的人群在热带安第斯山脉的空间分布模式，我们还有很多需要了解。本研究使用已汇编的考古学数据和一系列环境变量，生成了一个综合物种分布模型（SDM），其中包含了广义加性模型、随机森林模型和最大熵模型，以重建居住在热带安第斯山脉东部（大陆分水岭以东）的哥伦布时代前人群的空间分布模式，该区域涵盖了现代玻利维亚、秘鲁和厄瓜多尔三国境内的地区。在该区域，我们将其称为安第斯东坡，海拔、年均云频率、与河流的距离以及最干旱季度的降水量是与人类居住最密切相关的环境变量。我们的模型表明，我们研究区域的 11.04%（65368 平方公里）可能曾被哥伦布时代前的人群居住过。该模型显示，在 351 个森林清查样地中，有 30 个可能在哥伦布时代前就已经有人居住，这些样地被用来生成对安第斯生态系统的生态理解。在曾经有人居住的地方，演替轨迹可能仍在塑造森林动态，而这些森林可能仍在从哥伦布时代前的影响带来的生态遗产中恢复。我们的综合 SDM 将古生态学和新生态学联系起来，也可以用于指导未来的考古学和生态学研究。本文是“人类过去的热带森林”主题专刊的一部分。
