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考虑未观测到的异质性的农村弯道上单辆卡车碰撞事故分析。

An analysis of single-vehicle truck crashes on rural curved segments accounting for unobserved heterogeneity.

作者信息

Islam Mouyid, Hosseini Parisa, Jalayer Mohammad

机构信息

Research Faculty, Center for Urban Transportation Research, Virginia Tech Transportation Institute, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, CUT100, Tampa, FL 33640, United States.

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rowan University, 201 Mullica Hill Road, Glassboro, NJ 08028, United States.

出版信息

J Safety Res. 2022 Feb;80:148-159. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2021.11.011. Epub 2021 Dec 3.

DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2021.11.011
PMID:35249596
Abstract

INTRODUCTION

Medium to large truck crashes, particularly on rural curved roadways, lead to a disproportionately higher number of fatalities and serious injuries relative to other passenger vehicles over time. The intent of this study is to identify and quantify the factors affecting injury severity outcomes for single-vehicle truck crashes on rural curved segments in North Carolina. The crash data were extracted from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) from 2010 to 2017.

METHOD

This study applied a mixed logit with heterogeneity in means and variances approach to model driver injury severity. The approach accounts for possible unobserved heterogeneity in the data resulting from driver, roadway, vehicle, traffic characteristics and/or environmental conditions. Results' Conclusion: The model results indicate that there is a complex interaction of driver characteristics such as demographics (male and female drivers, age below 30 years, and age between 50 to 65 years), driver physical condition (normal driving condition and sleepy while driving), driver actions (unsafe speed, overcorrection, and careless driving), restraint usage (lap-shoulder belt usage and unbelted), roadway and traffic characteristics (undivided road, medium right shoulder width, graded surface, low and medium speed limit, low traffic volume), environmental conditions (rainy condition), vehicle characteristics (tractor-trailer and semi-trailer), and crashes characteristics (fixed object crashes and rollover crashes). In addition, this study compared the contributing factor leading to driver injury severity for curved and straight rural segments. Practical Applications: The results clearly indicate the importance of driving behavior, such as, exceeding the speed limit and careless driving along the high-speed curved segments, need to be prioritized for the trucking agency. Similarly, the suggested countermeasures for roadway design and maintenance agency encompass warning signs and advisory speed limit, roadside barrier with chevrons, and edge line rumble strips are important concerning curved segments in rural highways.

摘要

引言

随着时间的推移,中型至大型卡车碰撞事故,尤其是在农村弯道上,相对于其他乘用车而言,导致的死亡人数和重伤人数比例过高。本研究的目的是识别和量化影响北卡罗来纳州农村弯道上单车卡车碰撞事故中伤害严重程度结果的因素。碰撞数据是从2010年至2017年的公路安全信息系统(HSIS)中提取的。

方法

本研究应用了均值和方差具有异质性的混合逻辑回归方法来模拟驾驶员伤害严重程度。该方法考虑了由驾驶员、道路、车辆、交通特征和/或环境条件导致的数据中可能存在的未观察到的异质性。结果结论:模型结果表明,驾驶员特征之间存在复杂的相互作用,如人口统计学特征(男性和女性驾驶员、30岁以下年龄以及50至65岁年龄)、驾驶员身体状况(正常驾驶状况和驾驶时困倦)、驾驶员行为(不安全速度、过度修正和粗心驾驶)、安全带使用情况(使用肩带式安全带和未系安全带)、道路和交通特征(未分隔道路、中等右侧路肩宽度、分级路面、低和中等速度限制、低交通量)、环境条件(雨天状况)、车辆特征(牵引拖车和半挂车)以及碰撞特征(与固定物体碰撞和翻车碰撞)。此外,本研究比较了导致农村弯道和直道上驾驶员伤害严重程度的影响因素。实际应用:结果清楚地表明了驾驶行为的重要性,例如,在高速弯道上超速和粗心驾驶,运输机构需要优先考虑。同样,针对道路设计和养护机构的建议对策包括警告标志和建议速度限制、带有V形标志的路边护栏以及边缘线振动带,这些对于农村公路的弯道非常重要。

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