Darbyshire Rebecca Olive, Johnson Stephen B, Anwar Muhuddin Rajin, Ataollahi Forough, Burch David, Champion Curtis, Coleman Melinda A, Lawson James, McDonald Sarah E, Miller Michelle, Mo Jianhua, Timms Mary, Sun Daowei, Wang Bin, Pardoe Joanna
CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australia.
NSW Department of Primary Industries, 11 Farrer Pl, Queanbeyan, NSW, 2602, Australia.
Int J Biometeorol. 2022 Jun;66(6):1045-1056. doi: 10.1007/s00484-022-02265-7. Epub 2022 Mar 9.
Australia's primary production sector operates in one of the world's most variable climates with future climate change posing a challenge to its ongoing sustainability. Recognising this, Australia has invested in understanding climate change risks to primary production with a substantial amount of research produced. Recently, focus on this research space has broadened, with interests from the financial sector and expanded scopes of works from government and industry. These expanded needs require sector- and country-wide assessments to assist with the implementation of climate strategies. We considered the applicability of the current research body for these needs by reviewing 188 peer-reviewed studies that considered the quantitative impacts of climate change on Australia's primary industries. Our broad review includes cropping, livestock, horticulture, forestry and fisheries and biosecurity threats. This is the first such review for Australia, and no other similar country-wide review was found. We reviewed the studies through three lenses, industry diversity, geographic coverage and study comparability. Our results show that all three areas are lacking for sector- and country-wide assessments. Industry diversity was skewed towards cropping and biosecurity threats (64% of all studies) with wheat in particular a major focus (25% of all studies). Geographic coverage at a state level appeared to be evenly distributed across the country; however, when considered in conjunction with industry focus, gaps emerged. Study comparability was found to be very limited due to the use of different historical baseline periods and different impact models. We make several recommendations to assist with future research directions, being (1) co-development of a standard set of method guidelines for impact assessments, (2) filling industry and geographic knowledge gaps, and (3) improving transparency in study method descriptions. Uptake of these recommendations will improve study application and transparency enabling and enhancing responses to climate change in Australia's primary industries.
澳大利亚的初级生产部门处于世界上气候变化最为无常的地区之一，未来的气候变化对其持续的可持续性构成挑战。认识到这一点后，澳大利亚投入资源了解气候变化对初级生产的风险，并开展了大量相关研究。最近，这一研究领域的关注度有所扩大，金融部门也产生了兴趣，政府和行业的工作范围也有所扩展。这些不断增加的需求需要进行全行业和全国范围的评估，以协助实施气候战略。我们通过回顾188项同行评议研究来考量当前研究主体对这些需求的适用性，这些研究探讨了气候变化对澳大利亚初级产业的定量影响。我们广泛的综述涵盖了种植业、畜牧业、园艺业、林业、渔业以及生物安全威胁。这是澳大利亚首次进行此类综述，未发现其他类似的全国范围综述。我们从行业多样性、地理覆盖范围和研究可比性这三个角度对这些研究进行了审视。我们的结果表明，在全行业和全国范围的评估中，这三个方面都存在不足。行业多样性偏向于种植业和生物安全威胁（占所有研究的64%），其中小麦尤为受到重点关注（占所有研究的25%）。州一级的地理覆盖范围在全国似乎分布均匀；然而，结合行业重点来看，就出现了差距。由于使用了不同的历史基线期和不同的影响模型，研究可比性非常有限。我们提出了几项建议以助力未来的研究方向，即：（1）共同制定一套影响评估方法的标准指南；（2）填补行业和地理知识空白；（3）提高研究方法描述的透明度。采纳这些建议将改善研究的应用和透明度，从而促进并加强澳大利亚初级产业对气候变化的应对。
