Xue Huidan, Wang Liming, Li Chenguang
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China.
Irish Institute for Chinese Studies, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, D04 V1W8 Dublin, Ireland.
Foods. 2022 Feb 26;11(5):692. doi: 10.3390/foods11050692.
The dairy sector in the European Union (EU) has experienced policy changes and market shocks recently. Using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, this paper explores regional market integration, the feedback between market shocks and price dynamics, and the link between EU's cheese export markets and energy market. This paper assesses and compares which influencing factors are typically associated with intra-EU and extra-EU cheese export price movement with regards to shocks to crude oil price, farm-gate raw milk price, and consumer price index (CPI) for food and cheese production of six representative EU member states, respectively. Using generalized impulse response functions, this paper finds that EU's internal cheese export market is not well integrated, while EU's external market is well integrated, with France as an exception. It also finds that the external cheese export market is vulnerable to shocks from the energy market compared to the internal market. Raw milk prices from the upstream supply chain have strong spill-over effects on EU's internal cheese export market, yet their impact on extra-EU cheese export prices is relatively less significant. The movement patterns of extra-EU cheese export prices of Ireland and the UK show similar patterns in the long run. It is concluded that the dynamics of cheese export prices in the internal and external markets of the EU are different under market shocks.
欧盟（EU）乳制品行业最近经历了政策变化和市场冲击。本文运用全球向量自回归（GVAR）模型，探讨区域市场一体化、市场冲击与价格动态之间的反馈，以及欧盟奶酪出口市场与能源市场之间的联系。本文分别评估和比较了原油价格、农场门生鲜乳价格以及六个具有代表性的欧盟成员国食品和奶酪生产的消费者价格指数（CPI）冲击对欧盟内部和外部奶酪出口价格变动通常有哪些影响因素。运用广义脉冲响应函数，本文发现欧盟内部奶酪出口市场一体化程度不佳，而欧盟外部市场一体化良好，但法国除外。研究还发现，与内部市场相比，外部奶酪出口市场更容易受到能源市场冲击的影响。上游供应链的生鲜乳价格对欧盟内部奶酪出口市场有很强的溢出效应，但其对欧盟以外奶酪出口价格的影响相对较小。从长期来看，爱尔兰和英国对欧盟以外奶酪出口价格的变动模式呈现出相似的特征。研究得出结论，在市场冲击下，欧盟内部和外部市场奶酪出口价格的动态变化有所不同。
