Faculty of Economy and Business, Mediterranean University, Podgorica, Montenegro
Finance, Faculty of Economics, University of Montenegro, Podgorica, Montenegro.
Tob Control. 2022 Sep;31(Suppl 2):s124-s132. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056876. Epub 2022 Mar 12.
The main goal of this study was to examine the responsiveness of smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption to price and income changes by income groups and the effectiveness of tax policy changes to reduce cigarette consumption in Montenegro.
A two-part model was applied to estimate smoking participation, smoking intensity price and income elasticity. The first part of the model applies logit regression, while the second uses Deaton's model to improve the validity and objectivity of conditional (smoking intensity) elasticity results. A generalised linear model (GLM) was applied to verify robustness. The reason for this is that Deaton's model is commonly used in the analysis of Household Budget Survey (HBS) data, especially when households do not report the market price. Moreover, using this model, it is possible to capture the shading of quality to price change. The analysis used HBS data (2006-2017).
The estimates indicate that tobacco pricing policies had a much higher impact on smoking prevalence in the low-income group (price elasticity of -0.595) relative to the high-income group (price elasticity of -0.344). The same conclusion could be drawn for the smoking intensity elasticity: the high-income group was the least affected by changes in price (price elasticity of -0.258). At the same time, the most affected was the low-income group, with price elasticity of -0.424. Poorer households spent a larger share of their budget on cigarettes. The simulation results confirm that increases in the specific excise taxes of 58.3% on tobacco would reduce total cigarette consumption by 11.25% while increasing the collection of government revenue by 8.07%.
Smoking prevalence and consumption are very responsive to price and income changes, with considerable differences in elasticities between income groups. The taxation policy has a positive impact on changing patterns of consumption and public revenues across each income group. Low-income and middle-income households would benefit the most, while on the other hand, the highest revenue collection was generated from the wealthiest group. Our results align with results obtained so far for other low-income and middle-income countries. This paper contributes to the analysis of the smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption responsiveness to price and income changes, which was conducted for the first time in Montenegro.
本研究的主要目的是检验吸烟率和香烟消费对不同收入群体的价格和收入变化的反应程度，以及税收政策变化在减少黑山香烟消费方面的效果。
采用两部分模型来估计吸烟参与度、吸烟强度的价格和收入弹性。第一部分模型应用逻辑回归，第二部分模型应用 Deaton 模型来提高条件（吸烟强度）弹性结果的有效性和客观性。应用广义线性模型（GLM）进行稳健性验证。之所以选择 Deaton 模型，是因为该模型常用于家庭预算调查（HBS）数据的分析，特别是当家庭没有报告市场价格时。此外，使用该模型可以捕捉到质量对价格变化的遮蔽效应。本分析使用了 HBS 数据（2006-2017 年）。
估计结果表明，与高收入群体（价格弹性为-0.344）相比，烟草定价政策对低收入群体的吸烟率影响更大（价格弹性为-0.595）。对于吸烟强度弹性，我们可以得出相同的结论：高收入群体受价格变化的影响最小（价格弹性为-0.258）。与此同时，受影响最大的是低收入群体，价格弹性为-0.424。较贫困家庭将更大比例的预算用于购买香烟。模拟结果证实，对烟草征收 58.3%的特定消费税将使总香烟消费量减少 11.25%，同时使政府收入增加 8.07%。
吸烟率和消费对价格和收入变化非常敏感，不同收入群体的弹性差异较大。税收政策对改变每个收入群体的消费模式和公共收入都有积极影响。低收入和中等收入家庭将受益最大，而另一方面，最高的收入则来自最富裕的群体。我们的结果与迄今为止其他低收入和中等收入国家的研究结果一致。本文为首次在黑山进行的吸烟率和香烟消费对价格和收入变化的反应性分析做出了贡献。
