BACKGROUND

A simple and readily available biomarker can provide an effective approach for the surveillance of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the elderly. In this research, we aim to evaluate the role of triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio as an indicator for new-onset T2DM in an elderly Chinese population aged over 75 years.

METHODS

This longitudinal retrospective cohort study was conducted using a free database from a health check screening project in China. Participants with baseline TG and HDL measurements were enrolled, and the data of T2DM development were collected. The cumulative incident T2DM rates in different quintile groups of TG/HDL-C ratio (Q1 to Q5) were calculated and plotted. The independent effect of baseline TG/HDL-C ratio on T2DM risk during the follow-up period was tested by the Cox proportional hazard model. Subgroup analysis was also conducted to clarify the role of TG/HDL-C ratio in specific populations.

RESULTS

A total of 231 individuals developed T2DM among 2,571 subjects aged over 75 years during follow-up. Regardless of adjustment for potential confounding variables, elevated TG/HDL-C ratio independently indicated a higher risk of incident T2DM [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.14-1.47; < 0.01. As compared with the lowest quintile (Q1), elevated TG/HDL-C ratio quintiles (Q2 to Q5) were associated with larger HR estimates of incident T2DM [HR (95% CI), 1.35 (0.85-2.17), 1.31 (0.83-2.06), 1.85 (1.20-2.85), and 2.10 (1.38-3.20), respectively]. In addition, a non-linear correlation was found between TG/HDL-C ratio and the risk of T2DM, and the slope of the curve decreased after the cutoff point of 2.54. Subgroup analysis revealed a stronger positive correlation among male individuals and those with body mass index <24 kg/m.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased TG/HDL-C ratio indicates a greater risk of new-onset T2DM regardless of confounding variables. TG/HDL-C ratio is a simple but effective indicator in predicting T2DM in older adults. More future investigations are warranted to further promote the clinical application of TG/HDL-C ratio.