An evaluating system for wetland ecological risk: Case study in coastal mainland China.

Coastal wetland degradation and fragmentation contribute to habitat and biodiversity loss. We construct wetland ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate the risk posed to 35 coastal wetland national nature reserves (NNRs) in China for the years 2000 and 2020. Our wetland ecological risk index (WRI) is based on an external hazard sub-index (EHI) and an internal vulnerability sub-index. Most NNRs have low EHI values in both 2000 and 2020. Ratios of change in EHI range from -22.76% to 52.15% (a negative value indicates a decrease, a positive value an increase), and the EHI for 20 of 35 NNRs (57.1%) decreases over time. Variation in the internal vulnerability index ranges -44.78% to 88.97%, and increases at 18 NNRs (51.4%) over time. WRI variation ranges between -48.13% and 82.91%, and increases at 19 NNRs (54.3%). Most NNRs are ranked as being at low, medium risk in both 2000 and 2020. Notably, the number of high-risk NNRs increases from 3 to 10 (for which WRI values also increase). Expansion of built-up land, cropland occupation (in 2020), road disturbance, and water quality are all significantly associated WRI. Intensified management of the 10 NNRs ranked at high risk is necessary to prevent further deterioration.