Prognostic value of preoperatively obtained clinical and laboratory data in predicting survival following orthotopic liver transplantation.

Twenty-seven clinical and laboratory data and the subsequent clinical course of 93 consecutive adult patients who underwent orthotopic liver transplantation for various chronic advanced liver diseases were analyzed retrospectively to assess the risk factors of early major bacterial infection and death after the procedure. Forty-one patients (44%) had early major bacterial infection during hospitalization for orthotopic liver transplantation. The mortality rate was 70.7% in patients with early major bacterial infection and was 7.7% in patients without early major bacterial infection (p less than 0.001). Total serum bilirubin, total white blood cell count and polymorphonuclear cell count, IgG (all p less than 0.05) and plasma creatinine level (p less than 0.001) were higher in patients that developed early major bacterial infection than in those who did not. By step-wise discriminant analysis, the strongest risk factor for early major bacterial infection was the serum creatinine level, which achieved an accuracy of 69% for a creatinine level greater than 1.58 mg per dl. Seven variables (ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, elevated white blood and polymorphonuclear cell count, decreased helper to suppressor T cell ratio and elevated plasma creatinine and bilirubin levels) were associated with a significant increased risk for death. A step-wise discriminant analysis of these seven factors resulted in the demonstration of serum creatinine as the greatest risk factor for mortality. A preoperative serum creatinine either less than or greater than 1.72 mg per dl accurately predicts survival or death, respectively, in 79% of cases.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)